Not for the first time ABARE is getting ahead of themselves predicting big grain exports between July 2008 and June 2009. Presumably most of that will need to be shipped nearly ex-paddock and not much from current meagre silo stocks. The trouble is that the last grain season was poor in WA and SA. Who can say how the harvest will turn out next year both in those areas and the rest of Australia?

Whenever things seem a bit gloomy put on the rose coloured glasses and read an ABARE report.

Not disagreeing but didn't the WA wheat belt have well above average rainfall over the past year (with SA much less than average - no change on recent years).

I'm repeating what ABC Landline said about yet another bad year for WA, though on checking I see WA 2007 was better than 2006 with some Nov 07 crop finishing rain
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/drought/20070...
et seq. That still doesn't mean next year will be back to 'normal'. I notice that most of the decent rain in the last 6 months was ex Top End cyclone or La Nina. SA now seems to be stuck on hot-dry and Tas is cold-dry. Either way it seems like the rain is less dependable these days.

I'm just going on a map I saw in the paper this week - showing areas of above and below average rain.

WA wheatbelt was way above average (as was the east coast above Sydney) - SA, VIC, NT and Tassie were dry...