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The current agricultural system we employ is dependent not only on the standard critical infrastructure , but on a web of specialized services and goods to work (i.e., parts for tractors/combines and their attachments, non-heirloom seeds, fertilizers, baling wire, etc). The provision of these specialized goods and services also have their own web of dependencies; the complexity of 2nd and 3rd order house-of-card dependencies (not to mention 4th, 5th, ...) are normally not considered, which makes a problem seem simpler than it really is. Hence non-linear disorder extends to the logistical aspect of 'modern' agriculture, imparting a supply fragility that lies out of sight, but but is crucial nonetheless.
There are alternative suppliers of parts. Lots of engineers can redesign products to use different components. Agriculture won't fail for lack of parts. Either we will develop energy substitutes or industrial agriculture will fail.
> There are alternative suppliers of parts.
Perhaps in some limited instances, but I don't think you appreciate the uniqueness of most agricultural equipment. Parts for Allison-Chambers won't automatically fit on a John Deer, Ford, even with an engineer on the farm to redesign and machinist to mill and drill. That's simply handwaving.
> Either we will develop energy substitutes or industrial agriculture will fail.
You are forgetting about fertilizers (nitrogen, potash, potassium), herbicides, pesticides, etc.
Will Stewart,
Some of the harder to replicate pieces are the computers. But Allison-Chalmers and John Deere probably buy their ECUs from basic ECU suppliers that the auto industry uses.
I do not see the need to put engineers on each farm. We aren't going to fall apart so far that we'll cease to use a division of labor.
Look at the US in the late 19th century. We had a national market for many types of manufactured equipment even though we used a small fraction of a current per capita energy consumption.
> Some of the harder to replicate pieces are the computers. But Allison-Chalmers and John Deere probably buy their ECUs from basic ECU suppliers that the auto industry uses.
1. You believe the auto industry will remain robust post-peak? Your example alone highlights a major dependency risk.
2. You seem to believe parts from any number of manufacturers can be substituted easily back and forth. As one who has their B.S. in electro-mechanical engineering, I can assure you that rarely will one manufacturer's parts easily swap out for another, even on a piston/rod/crankshaft/lifter/oil pump/water pump/... and extrapolate that to the specialized farm implements; I think you get the message
>I do not see the need to put engineers on each farm.
So if a farmer has a combine part break down post-PO, and the manufacturer is struggling because of issues with 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th order dependencies with their suppliers, which engineers are going to come to his rescue, as you mentioned above? Are all parts for all existing farm machinery going to be redesigned and re-manufactured? Such a scenario fails the test of the problems the manufacturer was experiencing in the first place.
Your reference to the 19th century was interesting; in a booming economy, many things are possible; in a crisis economy (or even a collapse), the situation is quite different. Of course, we may see a return to agriculture not unlike that of the 19th century.
Will,
Let me give you a message: I work in engineering. I watch guys who maintain old products do parts substitution (I tend to work on new designs myself). I'm in the computing end of things. Parts go obsolete. An electronic controller design gets shifted to a newer process of the same instruction set architecture. We keep on going. An analog part goes end-of-life. We work around this and our repair department can still replace parts.
Mechanical designs: The designs exist. I know that Mercedes Benz, for example, can build a piston or valve of a 30+ year old car from original drawings. Porsche routinely provides parts replacements for 30+ year old cars since Porsche owners keep their cars running longer than owners of more common cars (an engineer in Germany I work with heard this directly from Porsche engineers). If there's a market with buying power there'll be suppliers.
If you project an extremely severe collapse then, yes, there won't be parts. But you've got to come with an extremely severe collapse for that to happen. If the farmers are all operating and have money to pay for parts then parts suppliers will supply the parts.
My reference to the 19th century: We'd have to cave in really really far to get back to 19th century living standards. We'd have to fall by an order of magnitude or more to get back to the 19th century. That's not going to happen because we have enough energy coming from non-oil sources to keep our energy consumption at probably about half our current level. So we fall back to maybe 1940 or 1950. Well, we had an industrial economy with lots of valves and pistons and other gadgets back then.
Pundit,
Let's just say you have your opinion and I have mine; no one has a crystal ball, obviously.
Future Pundit, US agriculture of the late 19th century was not sustainable long term. They used iron plows, harrows, combines, etc produced with metallurgic grade coal. They shipped centuries' accumaltions of guano from Pacific islands to the US for the nitrogen. They sluaghtered buffalo for their bones (phosphorous) and burned off New England forrests for the ash (potassium). They hunted the Passenger Pigeon to extinction. Iron plows started the loss of topsoil to erosion that continues to this day.
Again, late 19th century US agriculture was NOT sustainable.
PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami
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