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164 comments on Peak Oil Update - August 2008: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

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WisdomfromPakistan on September 1, 2008 - 2:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You can't logically ignore the capital costs of solar and wind. Both are around $3/watt and work only 20% of time so you need $15/watt. You lose atleast 20% energy during the most efficient storage (batteries) so the cost is $18.75/watt. Then add the maintenance cost which would be atleast 12.5% of the capital cost, so the total cost is %21/watt. Then add the cost of the battery which would be atleast 12.5% of the cost above. This takes the total cost to about $24/watt.

This system work for 30 years before total replacement and produce:

30 years x 365 days/year x 86400 second/day = 947 MJ energy

Each one dollar in gdp consumes 10 MJ energy (divide world/country/province gdp by world/country/province energy consumption) so each watt capacity above contributes $94.7 over a period of 30 years.

This is a ROI of less than 400% in 30 years or a linear 13.16%/year or an exponential 5%/year. Thats ROI in overall GDP of country. Given that each barrel of oil contributes about $600 in gdp and maximum per barrel oil price in history is $150 which is 25% of its contribution in gdp we can assume that the owner of solar cells or wind mill will only get at maximum 3.25% linear ROI per year.

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DaveMart on September 1, 2008 - 5:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I got one reply wiped as the site went down, but briefly, there is plenty of power available at least in the States to run EV's or hybrid's without extending the grid or solar, according to a recent study 84% of cars could be hybrid before the grid would need improving.

On the specifics of solar as suggested, thin film from First Solar costed around $1.29 watt in 2007 - figures are not available for Nanosolar.

PV maintenance costs are also low - and the configuration suggested is optimised for this.

The power also would not need transmitting or stepping down, as it is produced exactly where it is needed, saving cost, and although intermittency means it is only available 20% of the time, that is exactly when it is wanted.
The batteries are also paid for in the price of the car, or by a battery hire system which works out a lot cheaper than petrol.

Your calculations also take no account of the far greater efficiency of running an electric car rather than an ICC car, so you need a fraction of the power - only around 1kwh for 3-4 miles.

Finally, you appear to take no account of the inefficiencies of power generation with fossil fuels, which is 40% if you are lucky, and so counteracts around half of your losses for the 20% efficiency of solar due to intermittency.

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RobinPC on September 12, 2008 - 5:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

While solar and wind can not be poured into a gas tank, solar can be used to offset electricity demand through solar collectors for home heating and hot water. The resulting savings in electricity can be used to power an electric vehicle (EV). All this without increasing the need for more utility generators.

But all that lot falls very short of an answer to that opening phrase. There's a huge investment in things with gasoline/diesel etc tanks, not just millions of cars but also other rather pricey vehicles and machines. And then there's the supply infrastructure to be added. All that lot amounts to a daunting investment even for a thriving economy let alone one which is in substantial recession. Most of those empty tanks are not going to find electric replacements, my bet. And hence as I stated, C Martenson's point is valid.

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DaveMart on September 13, 2008 - 2:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I would not see at smooth transition to an all-electric fleer of vehicles in a use pattern similar to todays' either.
But the good news is that this is because we have made a mess of the financial environment, and fatally delayed transiting from fossil fuels.

This means that most will probably be using electric bikes and scooters rather than being able to afford a car, but delivery vehicles, emergency vehicles and taxis should be perfectly capable of being run.

This is a much brighter future than one where that is not the case, and has the additional advantage that the power requirements of this use are even lower than for EV cars, so the grid will need less power and we have more time to build alternative generating capacity.

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Joe Average on September 15, 2008 - 4:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Is it just me, or are things seeming a little more urgent lately?

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164 comments on Peak Oil Update - August 2008: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

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