 | Prof Peter Newman Diamonds of Hope (Part A) | The Oil Drum | David Paterson: First Openly Peak Oil Aware Governor |  |
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Leanan, I too think the evidence points to a "catabolic collapse" with disintegration occuring over an extended period with most people missing the reasons behind it and misdiagnosing the symptoms for the disease.
Hell, however, is a generic "mystical" state when an individual or society is accutely aware of the disintegration itself. The examples of past breakdowns of civilization do point to complexity returning to a sustainable level and yes, the process takes decades and centuries to complete. All that said, most people become aware that something is terrible amiss long before the breaking point.
Knowing the power of deniability (denial is indeed more than dat river in Egypt!!), 2008 may be the year when reality begins to seep in, especially if shortages and losses (in finance, in commodities, in food) begin to alter our lifestyles in a big way.
We're dancing on rim of the abyss now and, if observations about peak are right, have already descended onto the slippery slope of the maelstrom. At what point do people start to notice the pain?
From what I'm reading and seeing, the pain is apparent and for many, chronic.
The pain is apparent to some, but it's assumed to be temporary. And I think that will be the case for a very long time.
IMO, the collapse actually began in the early '70s - peak oil USA. Since then, there have been bad times (gas shortages) and good times (the dot-com boom). The pain has been very apparent to some (the blue collar workers who lost their jobs to offshoring). Some have pointed out that real wages have stagnated, and that Americans are working much longer hours than their parents did to maintain a similar lifestyle. But most people haven't noticed, or if they have, assume it's a temporary problem. We just need to elect the right politicians, pass the right laws, give people the right educations, etc., and everything will be okay.
I don't see that changing. Even in countries that are suffering far more from energy costs/shortages than we are...they don't seem to be "aware of the disintegration." At least, not as an insoluble or long-term problem. The problem is corrupt politicians or greedy oil companies or incompetent officials. Fix those problems, and they'll be on their way to the American dream.
And of course, politicians have every reason to encourage us to keep believing.
We've got a rate change coming this year. In energy prices, food availability, water availability, etc. People don't notice constant velocity, but acceleration tends to get their notice. Nothing may still happen, but then again maybe the pitchforks will come out.
If we do get accelerating rates of decline in our current lifestyle, will people look to the core causes or just the symptoms? The usual western world view is to address the symptom. The best long-term solution is usually to address the cause. I think Leanan may be right - people will continue to think that we just need some policy change and elect the right people (or some equally cosmetic change) and all will get better...
I suspect a few will look to core causes, but most of the people will be "lead" to look at symptoms and find a quick and easy way of "blaming others." As the example of the current banking crises has revealed, very few people are in to being accountable for their actions these days. John
I do think though that you will reach critical points for certain elements of the economy and then change/collapse will be rapid with unseen knock on effects.
As a case take the airline industry. There is no way the airlines can survive $100.00+ oil for very long. The last acts will consolidation and downsizing that may buy a the last limited period of time. With few exceptions there is little understading amongst the airlines of the situation we are in in respect of peak oil. The belief is current high prices will go away eventually.
With the US airlines now forcast to lose between $4 and $9 billion this year there will come a point where the majority of the system will fail and probably quite abrubtly. A lot airlines were bailed out after 9/11 with financial wizardry that will not be available this time round.
Just wait for the fuel hedges to expire and you may start to see some rapid closures if we have maintained this oil price later in the year. Then obviously knock on effects to other parts of the economy. I'm sure this will play out in other industries so we may see nothing much happening and then rapidly changing circumstances. Fits and starts down the slope.
Naah.
I expect "the airlines" to survive indefinitely even if they shrink considerably. Even in very poor countries, certain things are untouchable. In the present-day USA, two sacred cows are "home" "ownership" and the tourist "industry". Congresscritters will step in as needed and loot everything else to bail them out, as they have done many times at huge expense in the past, and as they are doing again right this very minute. When it comes to feeding sacred cows, there is always more "financial wizardry" to be had, even if it opens a road to everyday banknotes running far into the quintillions.
Congresscritters are, after all, incapable of ignoring yelps from Very Important And Connected People. And heaven forbid that Very Important Business Persons, their deals already made without human intervention by computers and spreadsheets, had to seal said deals over the phone rather than by physical visits to ultra-upscale hotels and restaurants on the far side of the world. The whines would be deafening and unbearable. And imagine the inhumane deprivation suffered by Very Important Academics made to read papers on their own, rather than vacation someplace nice like Bermuda on the pretext of pretending to listen in person to the absolutely incomprehensible mumbling of the authors. Our universities would collapse to dust instantly.
That's to say nothing of all the carrying on, some of which I'm already hearing, from the vast army of otherwise unemployable zero-marketable-skills persons who comprise the overwhelming bulk of the tourist "industry". The Chicago radio stations have been running unbranded ads, apparently from the hotel industry association, every now and then. These ads seem to be intended to scare people that if they aren't "being there", at $300 a night or whatever, they're toast. [And United Airlines continues to make the same point (PDF) more subtly in their print ad campaign.]
Even when there were long lines in the 1970s at the gas stations, flying somewhere for no particularly vital purpose was not a huge problem. Fares may go up, airlines may consolidate and lay off workers - but have no fear: ordinary people will forced to break their necks riding bikes to work on winter ice if that's what it takes to keep airlines going.
You could be right on the fuel priority for the airlines. They might get subsidies too like they did after 911. Even profitable Southwest Air received a hundred million or so in federal handouts back in 2001. At the very least I would see the US government giving security services for free to airlines, along with reducing or eliminating things like landing fees, fuel taxes, and ticket taxes. Maybe a $50 per airline passenger subsidy is in order, so that the flyers don't have to "feel the pain" like the rest of us.
One caveat about the airlines bailout is that as the economy heads south and people/businesses have no cash to spend (and far fewer employees), airlines may have no passengers to subsidize.
I don't really see the airlines as being immune. Their volume business comes from the masses, and discretionary spending is going to take a real hit.
This time around it seems that finances, at least in the US and UK, will be so dire that the ability to subsidise will be limited.
I think that they will loose a huge amount of volume, and that will creep up and hit the business market too.
Leanan: If you compare global supply (C+C) between 1974 and 2008 it is up about 33%. So an increase in global supply to 2042 C+C of 98 would be expected to continue the long term decline in the fortunes of the average American. The conclusion is that, for the average American, the slide is quickly going to become a freefall.
I agree with Leanan that the US has been in a slow decline since our oil production began to decline (benefits decreasing from employers, more folks working 2 or 3 jobs) but I agree with BrianT that now it is turning into a freefall. By 2012, I think we will be living in a much different world.
I would agree if the reduction is evenly distributed.
But I don't think it will be. I think we'll continue to outbid most of the rest of the world for the remaining oil. Even with our funny money.
I suspect a lot of Third World nations are near the breaking point. They can't afford to keep subsidizing energy costs. They're going to be forced to reduce consumption. We're still a far way from that point.
Also, we are so profligate in our energy use that we could cut back quite a bit without serious pain. People who have two or three or four cars will drive the little Toyota instead of the big Explorer more often. My office has not (yet) returned to the energy conservation measures they took a few years ago during the last recession.
RE: noticing the pain.
Unfortunately, we also have an unfortunate series of strategies for pain-management..
We don't always care as much about stemming the actual cause, as long as we can alleviate the symptoms.
As the 4 or 5 prescriptions for various pain-killers that my wife was just given after some gum surgery yesterday will attest, we are often just too terrified of experiencing pain at all. Besides the actual drugs, we have a broad spectrum of addictions that we use to drown out our anguish and fear, instead of letting these emotions help instruct us and inspire us to engender real healing.
Leslie just picked the Alleve.
".. It damn well hurts!
Certainly, it hurts.
What's the trick, then?
The trick, William Potter,
is not minding that it hurts. "
-Lawrence of Arabia screenplay, Robert Bolt
People may care about the actual cause, but often they don't have the tools to either discover the cause or address the cause.
And discussing only in the linear terms of "cause" and "effect" will miss a whole host of contributing systemic interactions.
Fair enough.
Trying to write and work this morning despite neck and shoulder pain, which the chiropractor tried to address by putting a rib back in place, because (all too likely) I do too much writing and not enough bricklaying or rockclimbing, so my intercaustals don't have the tone necessary to hold a few bones in their proper places..
"This calls for immediate discussion.." MontyPython's Life of Brian
Bob
I really ought to read further down thread before posting...