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Discontinuities was the thing that I was thinking too - essentially, the system is running flat out, and America seems to be wobbling from its position at the top. E.g. - the price in dollars may continue to rise beyond any reasonable expectation, as the dollar loses its value to those selling oil to America.
Well Simmons is a smart guy... who's to say (except him?) that he didn't peg this bet to the dollar value as opposed to Euros or a currency basket because of his assessment of the likely future value of the dollar?
If I were a betting man, I'd have taken that into account.
(Although he might then have put the bet itself in Euros or a currency basket if he believed that ... although it would perhaps have been more clever not to do that so as not to alert his betting partner to the reason he took his position in dollars...)