<DrumBeat: March 17, 2008 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: March 18, 2008>

73 comments on Update on the Simmons-Tierney Bet

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

Stuart Staniford on March 17, 2008 - 11:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well, as I said:

Of course, there are still two years, nine months, and a couple of weeks to go before the end of 2010 when the bet will be settled for sure. Who knows what will happen in the intervening time.

I agree that there could be geopolitical discontinuities, though with the release of the Iraq NIE (and consequent drop in Bush-Administration Sabre Rattling Index (BASRI), the world looks a little safer. We are also in the middle of financial market discontinuities, though at the moment, they are not as discontinuous as all that. They would have looked a lot more discontinuous this morning if the Fed hadn't operated so swiftly over the weekend.

Even the great depression took four years, peak to trough!

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
shepseskaf on March 17, 2008 - 4:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

... with the release of the Iraq NIE (and consequent drop in Bush-Administration Sabre Rattling Index (BASRI), the world looks a little safer.

I beg to differ. With the recent stepping down (firing) of Adm. Fallon, and the continuous ramping up of anti-Iran rhetoric, the chances for more American military action in the Middle East looks to have increased, not decreased. All-out war in that region would certainly make a very strong case for discontinuities, perhaps for extended periods of time.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
whaleoil on March 17, 2008 - 5:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Indeed

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1205420704459&pagename=JPost%...

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

73 comments on Update on the Simmons-Tierney Bet

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version