215 comments on DrumBeat: March 17, 2008
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215 comments on DrumBeat: March 17, 2008
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Inflation or Deflation has been answered it seems.
Bear-Sterns 1.2 million-square-foot, 45-story structure built in 2001 is worth about $1.2 billion, based on the average $1,000 per- square-foot that comparable office space in the city is currently fetching. All for $250 million.
So many times lines from the Princess Bride are appropriate, such as, never get involved in a land war in Asia. But here, the line is I do not think that word means what you think it does. Inflation pops up in many forms; in the 70's, when commodity prices increased and everyone agrees we had inflation, stock prices declined, substantially. The inflation/deflation argument cannot be settled by looking at one particular asset, or asset class. The rising tide of inflation does not lift all boats equally.
When prices move in one category, they often move in an opposite direction in another category. Witness, for example, motor gasoline prices and resale values on Hummers. Likewise, some asset classes move in tandem, such as financial stocks and the real estate used to house those financial companies (one hesitates to call it an "industry"). Bear Stearns, by the way, was bought for $236 million, or less than the building is priced; one year ago, the company was worth 30 times the building, at the extravagant pricing then.
We are witnessing a repricing of assets, in response to the substantial mis-pricing of certain assets over the past few years. That does not give you inflation or deflation.
I think that the BS building is probably a good deal right now, for someone in that business. But there are going to be better deals soon.
Raise cash, invest in things that can't be easily duplicated (such as fossil fuels and downtown and farming real estate), and avoid things that can be easily duplicated (such as paper money, mortgages, etc.), and I think you can survive intact.
Inflation will eventually arrive to lift all values of all asset classes, but some will go much higher than others, and we know here which classes those are.
Somehow, the BS abbreviation for Bear Stearns seems appropriate.
Jim Rogers on Bloomberg says "...a Bear Sterns bankruptcy would have exposed huge bonus payouts to traders...The Federal Reserve is using taxpayer's money to buy a bunch of Bear Stearns' traders Maseratis"... The FED will fail."
Jim Rogers Says Fed Support of Bear Stearns `Outrageous': Video Play
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/
I dunno...
Bear execs lack golden parachutes as stock plan crunched
Bear fire sale sparks financial rout
If they got Maseratis, they may have to sell them.
According to Rogers, if BS was forced into bankruptcy, "...billions in January bonuses would have to be returned."
Yes, employee staff will suffer but no crocodile tears need be shed for the traders. They are big boys who can take care of themselves.
Add Lehman Brothers to the list.
Lehman Brothers has lost a third of it's value in 2 1/2 hrs. Just like Bear Stearns on Friday. Actually down 36% right now and dropping quickly.
This thing is NOT contained.
Lehman has now lost half it's value with hours left til market close.
Looks like you fixed it - as soon as you posted this it turned around (well, a little anyway)!
Lehman rout tests Fed's resolve
The article goes on to say,
"In the meantime... executives, legislators and regulators will have to work to restructure the U.S. financial system to remove the incentives for players to take irresponsible actions."
Yes, by all means, let's harness the best minds to restructure the sytstem. How about Greenspan and Rubin redux?
Glass-Steagall, where were you we we needed you?
Solar: Skilling and Fastow were no worse than any of these guys (possibly not as bad).
Skilling and Fastow were smaller fish who took the fall IMO.
Their masters and tutors are now feeling the heat. But watch how facile the real perpetrators will be in defining the problem and becoming part of the restructuring solution.
The calls will go out now for economic physicians to restructure the financial system.
“During the long period of innocence in the 50s and 60s we basked in the happy conviction that economics was a developed science, roughly equivalent to the age of sulfanilamide in medicine. We were shocked to find that the state of economic science more nearly paralleled Dr. Harvey’s discovery of the circulation of the blood. Honest practitioners no longer try to hide their dubiety; many are resorting to leeches and poultices. I have faith that our economy is sufficiently robust to survive, yet I cannot forget the infant Louis XV, who, after contracting smallpox, was saved from death only because his nurse hid him from the ministrations of the doctors whose vigorous attentions killed his father and his brother.”
George Ball (1909-1994)
Investment Banker and former Under Secretary of State in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations and foreign policy advisor to the Carter administration.
It's disturbing the version of history we get taught. We will go on believing some warped version of reality and basing our current decisions on the erroneous myths of the recent past. But that is a rant I do not have the time to address properly...
Of course, BS is only the beginning. A BS is always followed by an MS (More of the Same), and finished off with a PhD (Piled higher and Deeper)
You were supposed to do more studying than was assigned by the prof. Then you might have seen the real estate bubble and got out of mortgage backed securities more than a year ago.
"Bear" is pretty salient too.
So well said. The rising tide of inflation is actually a tsunami, and will inundate all equally. I lived in Brazil for a couple of years during their chronic hyperinflation -- but was shielded because I was paid in American Dollars which were actually worth something then. Interestingly, Brazil also once had a valuable currency -- but that was a long time ago.
It seems that under chronic hyperinflation, money ceases to have much meaning, and as much as possible things revert to barter. It certainly did not stop the growth of the population, and there wasn't mass starvation, although the bottom tiers of the economy were (and are) pretty desperate.
Of course the big difference from Brazil is that most of the US's debts are denominated in US dollars. I remember years ago some visiting American friends were very worried about America's rising debt. How would future generations pay it off? I laughed and said that if the USA ever got in real trouble it could just print money to pay its debts. "Oh no, we would never do that"...
I think the point is that we see that the govt's going to use the printing press a la Weimar. Yes, of course, there will be repricings within that.
Underlying all this is the massive devaluation of suburbia and all that depends on it (i.e. everything!) because of the increasing price of energy.
There are strong parallels with Germany in the 20s and 30s, although the order in which things are unfolding here is different. And Germany's resource problems were not because of geology, but because she lost WW1. Ditto her debt problems. But the debt and resource issues were in very broad brush the same. War and fascism were the "solution". We're already at war. The "problem" has been that the economy's been more or less ok -- til now. Will opposition to war (and wider war), timid as it has been, hold up in a depression? Or will depression supply the lacking cannon fodder?
All very true but that is not the whole story. Whom ever buys Bear Stearns must assume their expected loss for this year, estimated to be in excess of $6 billion. The stock actually has negative value even with the building thrown in. JP Morgan Chase has indicated a willingness to absorb that loss. Bear Stearns shareholders are holding out, hoping to find a buyer who is willing to accept even more loss. One gentleman on CNBC this morning said Bear Stearns is worth nowhere near $2 a share.
Ron Patterson
Whom ever buys Bear Stearns must assume their expected loss for this year
Yea, sure. Just like the losses of LTCM or Silverado were covered and none of the creditors took it in the shorts.
Ron, what you wrote may be correct, but it depends on how the deal was structured. A stock deal that leaves Bear Sterns as a subsidiary would not necessarily obligate JP Morgan to do anything else. An appearance would be created. However, unless the deal requires a huge capital injection, assumption of debts or an actual merger, only the assets of Bear Sterns are available to its creditors.
Hard to say what is happening, but to the extent that Bear Sterns is a counter party to derivatives held by JP Morgan, Morgan may have done little more than buy itself an inside seat at the liquidation as some deals get unwound and other get get settled for pennies. Preferential treatment IIRC is an "act of bankruptcy" but a rational trustee would probably view keeping the big players alive as a priority.
Wrong!
Bear Stearns's Bonds Soar as JPMorgan Agrees to Buy Firm, Debt
As you say it all depends on how the deal was constructed, and it was constructed to assume all debts and obligations. Obviously the shareholders would never agree to keep the debt and sell the assets for pennies on the dollar. A package deal was what was negotiated. The shareholders are yet to accept even that deal but they probably will, or perhaps the price will be raised a buck or two. At least the market thinks so because Bear Stearns is currently trading for over four bucks.
The "debt" part has been all over the news, all morning. That was a major part of the deal. That is what prompted some folks on CNBC to say that the stock actually has a negative value.
Ron Patterson
Thanks Ron. I had looked for, but not seen any real facts concerning the terms.
To my still admittedly uninformed eye, there is a a lot more to this that is not clear.
"Debt" is one thing. Counter party risk related liabilities and losses that have not yet been marked to market are another.
Did the wall between the legal entities come down, or was the deal on the assumption of liabilities much narrower -- i.e. "debt" only?
A weekend is not enough time to do "due diligence" on this sort of transaction, so IMO either JP Morgan took on a boatload of risk without full knowledge; the deal was directly tied to the continuing viablity of JP Morgan; or the assumption by JP Morgan of Bear Stern's risk exposure is not absolute or some combination of these three.
[edited to add the "or some combination of these three"]
Supposedly JP Morgan has taxpayer funding on this one-30 billion?
Right - BS did not declare bankruptcy, so their liabilities remain.
It's different from when Refco went bankrupt - then the creditors had to sue for money owed.
How can 97% of the value of the a company simply go up in smoke? Isn't this what the SEC is for? How messed up must their accounting be in order to let something like this happen? If they're having trouble, shouldn't it be a gradual decline as more and more information comes out?----This is why I don't like stocks, way too unpredictable. People give me a hard time for being in commodities, but I think stocks are even more chaotic. As an example, remember when Shell had to revise their reserves several years ago? There is no way for a shareholder to know what's going on behind closed doors.
Philip
I did some more research on this and I understand it a bit better now. Bear Sterns was leveraged 30 to 1 on AAA exchange traded funds. They never expected these AAA funds to default, but they did, and that way they can lose a lot of value quickly.
Philip
There are tens of thousands of publicly traded corporations and only a handful of SEC employees to keep them honest. It is one of the sacrifices we must accept in order to pay for the so called war on terror.
this really had little to do with the value of their holdings, though that eventually would have been an issue. It became a self-fulfilling prophecy that other banks would refuse to trade with them as counterparty. Once that happens, you can't do business, you can't fund overnight, you can't do anything. They tried to do the same thing with Lehman today but doesn't look like it will work (yet). But I know at least 2 firms that have announced they won't take LEH as opposite side of trade. Wall st is vicious.
(now it will be a REALLY interesting story if it turns out the firms that decided not to do trades with Bear also happened to be short Bear stock - that would really piss off Spitzer, err. someone)
Let's say it's a little bit ago, Bear is floating around 50-60. Someone shorts them big, to 25-30. Bear drops to 2. Didn't they lose their shirt also?
No - you make even more money.
Here is monetary example.
I short 1000 shares of Bear at $60. for this I need some money in my account as margin, but only 50%. So I can have anything $30,000 or more - lets say I have the minimum. Shorting the stock generates $60,000 in proceeds which show up in my account and I earn interest on. But my acct value is still $60,000 at that moment, assuming I have no other positions but this Bear Stearns short. When the stock dumped to $30, the value of my account goes up $30 x 10000 shares= $30,000 so its now worth $60,000 plus interest. When the stock goes to $2, I've now made $58,000 so my account is now worth $88,000. If I keep holding it short the most I can make is another $2000 because then it would be worthless and I'd never half to buy it back.
But in this case, holders of record as of a certain date will have their shorts (and longs) transferred into JP MOrgan stock.
If someone shorted (sold shares he didn't own) Bear at 50-60 and covered (repurchased them) at 25-30 he made 25-30. The continued drop is only a lost opportunity.
see example
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_selling#Example
Sounds like Cleveland in the 1970s when they took each steel mill in turn and fed it to the next one down the Cuyahoga River. I think the last one was shipped to Japan or something.