In my opinion export land is not the only factor effecting the current oil prices. Given the error in our global production number I feel that we are approaching the bottom range of reported numbers vs real oil shipments. Tanker contract rates and prices are indicating that currently reported numbers are high. My best guess is its down by about 1mbpd from reported which means we should see reported numbers decrease over the next 4-5 months.

http://oiltankers.blogspot.com/2008/01/bloomberg-roundup.html

The key is that tanker rates where falling even as crude shipments where supposedly increasing.
If you read through the articles what you see is a movement of oil from Asia to Europe and the US which is showing up in the PDF. So its a bit of a game of robbing peter to pay paul.
SuezMax which means US or EU rates where up for example. I see nothing in the tanker data that indicates any sort of strong gain in shipments.

Export Land could also be playing a large role then indicated since I'm sure that internal consumption numbers are even harder to verify.

Next unless people forget one of the big problems was that refining capacity was supposed to be a bottle neck yet todays numbers show close to maximum oil shipments but refining capacity utilization quite low in the US.

Time will tell of course but it seems to me that if the Mega Projects list is reasonable and if KSA has more oil etc etc we will move upwards this year or I'm right and decline off the plateau has started and it will become obvious by 4th quarter this year.

In any case I really think our bumpy platuae is going to make a definite movement by the end of the year. Also of course export land should become clear in about the same time frame.
Gasoline prices in November will be very interesting.

On the economic side since we have a natural increase in house sells in spring/summer and of course various increases in internal tourist jobs in the US and EU I think we will muddle through for a bit longer. Also I think the Fed will get more creative with stupid actions that will avert any problems short term at the expense of more down the road. I think we will see a drop in air travel as people vacation locally but this will keep gasoline demand strong.

And finally I suspect I'm the only person on the planet willing to call a end of the plateau on a supposed increase but this has gone on for about three months now :)