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http://www.opec.org/opecna/Press%20Releases/2005/pr082005.htm
The new ORB is made up of the following: Saharan Blend (Algeria), Minas (Indonesia), Iran Heavy (Islamic Republic of Iran), Basra Light (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE) and BCF 17 (Venezuela).
At present the API gravity for the new Basket is heavier, at 32.7º compared to 34.6 º for the previous basket of seven crudes. In addition, the sulphur content of the new Reference Basket is more sour at 1.77%, compared to the previous basket of 1.44%.
Some "speculation" is as a result of hedging - oil BUYERS are buying because they believe prices will go higher; oil SELLERS (including oil producers), so far, have been unwilling to unload their wares at lower prices.
Of course, some of this movement is caused by emotion and herd mentality too.
Markets are a supply and demand thing. Demand has outstripped supply and thus the futures contracts head higher. Someone believes in scarcity it seems.
Speaking of demand, US total product demand hit a new 1 year high in today's EIA report, perhaps a new record high, still checking that one.