<UK Natural Gas Prices, Already at Historically High levels, Set To RiseThe Oil DrumOilwatch Monthly - March 2008>
<DrumBeat: March 18, 2008DrumBeatDrumBeat: March 20, 2008>

287 comments on DrumBeat: March 19, 2008

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

andrews416 on March 19, 2008 - 9:32am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Global capitalism teeters on the brink

You can encourage people to borrow by pumping money into the economy, but you can't force people to lend

All my previous reading of Homer Dixon has always shown some guarded optimism. I don't see any silver lining in this article.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Zadok_the_Priest on March 19, 2008 - 9:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's difficult to be optimistic, even guardedly so, when the lights go out and we're left gropping around in the dark.

So the rules of the game have now changed. Our global financial system has become so complex and opaque that we've moved from a world of risk to a world of uncertainty. In a world of risk, we can judge dangers and opportunities by using the best evidence at hand to estimate the probability of a particular outcome. But in a world of uncertainty, we can't estimate probabilities, because we don't have any clear basis for making such a judgment. In fact, we might not even know what the possible outcomes are. Surprises keep coming out of the blue, because we're fundamentally ignorant of our own ignorance. We're surrounded by unknown unknowns.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
super390 on March 19, 2008 - 11:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Re: The Soviet Union, 1980-1990.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
weatherman on March 19, 2008 - 2:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That line is a reiteration of what JM Keynes said in the 1930's. He likened it to pushing on a piece of string. That's why he thought fiscal policy should take up the slack.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.