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20 comments on Happenings in Harmaliyah
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20 comments on Happenings in Harmaliyah
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Joules, this is a fascinating use of publically available data and a bit of gumshoeing to provide a valuable insight into how Saudi Aramco appears to be managing its production commitments. Yesterday we saw the negation of the possible 2005-2006 oil peak in Rembrandt's post, but we didn't see the Aramco make much headway themselves to contribute to that new record.
So does this confirm what Aramco has said often: that there are many ecomnomically recoverable barrels still to go in Saudi Arabia and that this is a natural step to diversify their production base beyond the big five fields, or is this a sign more of the decline of those fields? I would be interested to see more of what the impression was of the recoverability and quality of the Harmaliyah field was when it was first discovered and why it was mothballed or left mostly undeveloped to begin with.
El Tel
Without knowing how this development ends up, I'm not sure what the implications, if any, are. The surprise is the number of new wells with basically no PR. Why no PR? Maybe they were going to surprise somebody on their birthday. Was the Nuayyim project harder to keep secret because it required bidding from contractors? And this is also a time when Khurais was getting started, Khursaniyah et. al. were struggling to get done, and rigs were in short supply.
There are most definitely recoverable barrels in SA, but it will take a lot of smaller fields like this to offset the decline of a big one. Redeveloping small, older fields could be characterized as diversification, but there is a fine line between that and scrounging. In any case, it doesn't matter. If they can't find some actual new fields after awhile, there will be nowhere left to drill.
As far as the quality of the reservoir, I haven't found anything about the permeability. I assume that lack of pressure support has something to do with it being occasionally mothballed, and maybe with the Haradh pressure support they saw encouraging things (warranting the seismic and then the wells) that they didn't know before.