Modeling work with the Millennium Institute's T21-USA model ## shows that

The Best Economic Policy is the Best Energy Policy and the Best Environmental Policy (and also the Best National Defense (if not offense) Policy)

The same policy resulted in the highest GDP, greatest reduction in CO2 and greatest reduction in oil use (for the USA) of all policies modeled. It also provided a place for some oil based transportation to go to when oil shocks are modeled.

The policy ?

A maximum push for renewable energy coupled with a maximum push for building a Non-Oil Transportation system# in parallel to the existing Oil Based Transportation system.

# Non-Oil Transportation was defined as electrified and expanded existing freight rail system, massive build out of Urban Rail, more bicycling and Transit Orientated Development (walkable neighborhoods).

The interaction between renewable & Non-Oil policies appears to be multiplicative and not merely additive.

We suspect that a massive push for conservation would improve these already excellent results. One restraint is just how much investment the USA would be willing to make, we cannot "crash everything".

I recently returned from 2.5 weeks in DC working on a peer reviewed paper on this (on my nickel).

Best Hopes for pro bono publico efforts,

Alan

## ASPO-USA sponsored the T21-USA model which has EROEI and other energy and environmental add-ons to standard econometric models (CBO & World Bank caliber).

Thanks once again to Alan Drake (Big Easy) for expressing what I was having trouble doing.

I think that "Alan" (Initial poster in thread) was accurate about describing the problem of promoting something that is lobbying for a 'negative', which is a hard concept to grasp as an Action Item or as a Business proposition. I think that, as with 'Giving up something', like Coffee or Cigarettes, it can be more helpful to focus on the positive of the replacement, not the 'desired absence' of the current problem (CO2).. Alan Drake's examples of Electric Rail and Renewables are both (IMO) Great Positives that can create jobs, quality infrastructure and economic liveliness without having to be focused on the 'Negative Space', as artists call it.

Not that 'Negative' or 'Less' is bad or undesired, but instead of describing it as 'What I'm NOT producing.' (CO2, or whatever).. to redescribe it as what you ARE, what you ARE DOING, what you ARE PRODUCING.

I would like to discover more language for how this applies to individual lifestyles and behaviors, too, so that selling these concepts can focus on the Water in the Rapids, not the Rocks..
You are HEATING your own house with the sun..

You are SAVING money(and energy dependence) and you are 'TONING UP yourself' by leaving lights off, consolidating refrigerators/washloads/commutes.. ie trimming the fat, being sharp and conscious about how you live.

It's funny, as soon as I said that last sentence, ... and actually struggled to get the words out.. it reminded me of one of the 'latent elements' of the 'American Way' being implicitly synonymous with 'continual material gratification' and not only refusing to compromise on such, but in fact that compromise, and with it, self-restraint is ultimately A)Synonymous with failure, giving in, being a loser.. B)That it's TOO HARD.. I CAN'T do that.. and C)ultimately dangerous. "It will hurt the Economy", "It will compromise our security!" It was basically a reminder that a lot of this comes down to Addict Behavior, and needs to be addressed with that in mind. It makes the fear of "Less" make a lot of sense, of course. Even though we seem to celebrate the idea of self-control, self-discipline.. these are the traits that addiction destroys. The language I said I was seeking is common enough, but it's funny how the brain jumps away from using them when considering speaking them to such an addicted audience, as it will be laughed out of the room, even if it's the right word.

Hey Americans, SAVE MONEY. Actually SAVE some of your income as your first action on payday. THEN figure out how much COFFEE and ICE CREAM and CABLE CHANNELS you can afford.

And Naturally.. well ARTIFICIALLY, really, we are being encouraged to OBEY OUR THIRST everywhere we look. It's not that it's JUST the Advertisers' fault, but I don't give them a pass on this either, by any means.

"Can't Live Without Chocolate? Well now you don't Have To!!" Because the whole carnival ("Meat Market"..almost mistranslated) has been conditioned with the unapologetic goal of convincing you that you need their product.. and the more addictive that product is, the more it's sales will pay for psychologists, salespeople and artists to work their damnedest to keep convincing you that 'It's okay.. you deserve a break today.' "Don't just sit there. Well, OK just sit there ABC."

Alright.. so just as a conscious, well-informed and activated public would threaten a number of our most lucrative industries, it would also radically transform the major political parties. Piece of Cake!

I did it, though. I threw out the girl-scout cookies.. after eating a 'few'. They are really crap. Well intentioned, but crap. Next year, I'll just give them the $14 and toss in a couple Apples.

Bob

What about Nega-Watts?

Those are the watts one doensn’t use, so they are ‘sold’ back to the community in the sense that they are never produced, not called for, and thus spare the environment, nature, reserves, etc.

It is largely the 'Negawatts' idea that I was (initially) thinking of here. I strayed off about 90 degrees from the original thought with the Addictions/Adverts ideas..

Running Rapids on my stream of consciousness, I guess. I'm a little delirious with some sudden stomach thing today, so I've been a little more 'impressionistic' than usual.

I am just trying to point out that it can be counterintuitive to write about 'what isn't'.. People describe themselves, sometimes, by starting out with what they are NOT, and while the process of elimination can work, it is a roundabout way to get there. It feels like the energy equivalent to "Picture in your mind anything BUT a blue elephant.."

Anyway, I'm not going to do much better than this today.

Happy Birthday, TOD, Happy Easter All (My Agnosto-antagonist brother is serving up a Rabbit to the rest of the family tonight, blessings of the Great Pumpkin be upon him!) Time to pray to the porcelain!

Bob

One that we would like to model, but do not have the resources to model, yet.

A good conservation tool.

Alan

I fancy maximum push for efficiency, renewable energy, nuclear energy and non fossil fuel transportation. This must to a very large degree be made on an as free markets as possible to catch the economical solutions and not the politically correct or popular solutions since it would be a disaster if too much resources are wasted. Every region and business sector must make an effort based on its current strenghts.

The Millennium Institute is quite willing to develop a T21-Sweden or T21-Nordic. Not that expensive and one can try out different policies.

Humans have difficulty considering the interactions of more than 4 or 5 variables at once (politicians usually consider only one or two variables), and the computer can vastly increase that #.

Try out various policies and look for "unintended consequences" and which policies work better. Good data for projections is needed.

One can download a simplified T21-USA or T21-NA at

http://www.millenniuminstitute.net/

BTW, Some of the MI staff have Nordic links, Andrea is getting his PhD in Bergen and his girlfriend is working on that Danish renewable island south of Copenhagen, and MI is negotiating to move to Riga.

Best Hopes for Rigorous Policy Analysis,

Alan

Basing political decisions on rigorous policy analysis do to me seem a little far fetched from the political day to day world but it is an intresting ideal.

I am happy that statistical and scientific arguments carry a fair ammount of weight both in the Swedish parliament and to the general population. If an institution, organization or knowledged individual do a realy good analysis it can be heard thru the buzz and PR people. Appealing both to feelings and science often wins debates over people who look good and only appeal to feelings.

How much people listen to scientifically based argumentation varies greatly between different areas of politics and it varies over time. My conclusion is that it often is very bad if decisionmaking separates from reality and drifts up in the clouds to deliver ideology or religion.

My aim was to produce one result: reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

How nations adapt to the reduced availability will determine the impacts on society. I like your plan and if it is put into wide practice society would benefit.

Unfortunately without a limit on the production of fossil fuels I they will most likely be exported and burned elsewhere. If developing nations try to follow our 20th century path the communities following your plan while receiving the benefits of your plan will still face larger problems from climate change produced by the exported emissions.

One benefit of my plan is it becomes more difficult to avoid following your plan.

.

One of the goals of the Millennium Institute is to create a T21-World to test global strategies.

Shifting carbon burning from one nation to another does little good, reducing emissions from the #1 polluter but making no change in the #2 polluter does do some good. Reducing everyone's CO2 emissions will likely be required.

The most profound insight is that doing right by the environment also results in a significantly larger GDP than BAU.

Best Hopes,

Alan