The Oil Drum

23 comments on Ghawar Numerology: Drilling in Uthmaniyah

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Henry on March 31, 2008 - 3:07pm

As I watched the video I could visualize the left side of the Hubbert curve developing.

As the dots appear on the map, you can see them defining the deposit by first drilling on the periphery, only later to saturate the center of the deposit with well. It should be clear that there is no where else to drill once the center is heavily populated with wells. Depletion should soon take the upper hand.

Also, if we are depending on a more natural depletion rate, we should first look at that pressure chart. To the extent that pressures were artificially inflated, production was accelerated at the expense of future production, so the depletion rate on the right side of the Hubbert curve likely will be higher than otherwise. Isn't this what the Mexicans are experiencing now?

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memmel on March 31, 2008 - 3:24pm

Does the drilling pattern make you feel that oil production will be symmetric ?
If not then its not Hubberts curve. My opinion is that this shows why production will be asymmetric with production declining much faster post peak then it increased on the upside.