No new refineries in 30 years, and specifically the last seven, is the best economic and political evidence of peak oil.

It's the best evidence that we had massive overinvestment in refineries 1970s and 1980s and when the oil bubble collapsed it didn't make sense to build refineries.

Th US has a trading system in place for sulphur dioxide emission. This trading system has a tendency to favor existing installations over new build installations. So 'repairing' or 'refitting' an existing intsllation is chaeper than building a new one if one wants more capacity. And before you ask, refineries are major sulphur emitters.

Interesting tie to this - On the watt podcast #75 they discuss how the coal power plant reduction happened.

Lower heat content, lower sulfur coal was shipped in VS using 'local' higher heat, higher sulfur coal.

Thus lower sulfur emitted, higher CO2 emissions.

WHEEE!

Now I'll bet they wish they installed scrubbers (or whatever it is that captures the sulfur), and had "waste" sulfur to sell. Last I heard it was something like $900/ton.

No new refineries in 30 years? Existing refineries have been expanded as this is less costly than applying for environmental permits to build new ones. New refineries were being built overseas also. If you believe in peak oil you will find that a time is coming when there will be enough refineries, but not enough oil to refine.

Hello Rainsong,

Good points--I agree, but also without FFs, there additionally won't be much recovered sulfur for processing I-NPK and all the other critical uses of sulfur and sulfuric acid [not much is mined anymore]:

Powerpoint PDF on Sulphur:

http://www.choa.ab.ca/documents/Apr12TL-ppt.ppt

Recall that Gazprom wants to raise sulfur prices Sevenfold in 2008:

http://www.meed.com/petrochemicals/news/2008/02/maaden_to_dominate_ferti...
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...Costs in Russia, a key rival, are set to escalate dramatically, with Gazprom set to raise sulphur prices more than sevenfold in 2008. Maaden, in contrast, will have access to cheap local sulphur.

"Maaden's sulphur will be cheaper than most," says Barrie Bain, director of Fertecon, a UK-based fertiliser consultancy. "But the phosphate rock will be expensive compared with Morocco and US producers who have their own rock. It depends on how Maaden accounts for the capital cost."
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The postPeak battle to be a price-maker vs a price-taker is on! If I was an FF-exporter: I could further juice my profits by removing the sulphur first to later sell to constrained importers at a high profit. Why let the importing refineries make the sulfur bucks$$ when they refine the crude?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Recall my often posted phrase:

Sitting in the dark is pure luxury compared to starvation.

Another way to rephrase it is:

Taking away a person's gasoline or electro-juice just pisses them off, but take away their food or their NPK-ability to grow food--now your talking CONTROL.

Consider how easy it was to control Tadeusz Borowski, #119198:

http://dieoff.com/page226.htm
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THIS WAY FOR THE GAS, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

....Around here whoever has grub, has power.
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