The Oil Drum

56 comments on Unconventional Oil: Tar Sands and Shale Oil - EROI on the Web, Part 3 of 6

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toilforoil on April 15, 2008 - 1:46pm

Canadian Natural Gas Realities.

Natural Resources Canada last week published the December 2007 production numbers (and the February wells completed data). In 2007, production of marketable natural gas dropped by 2.4% from 2006, and is down by 6% from its 2002 peak. The number of well completed in 2007 was down by 22% from the 2005 peak and the trend is accelerating. For the months Nov 2007 to Feb 2008 compared to the same period one year earlier, the number of well completions dropped by more than 33%.

People following this issue will note that the recently announced drilling incentives from the Alberta government apply exclusively to deep natural gas drilling. I think this suggests that industry and gov't officials know that the 'shallow' gas plays which have accounted for so much new production in recent years is about done.

I wouldn't count on tar sands production ever making 2 billion barrels per year.

http://www2.nrcan.gc.ca/es/erb/prb/english/View.asp?x=449

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advancednano on April 15, 2008 - 5:29pm

Canada has had several new natural gas finds that seem to more than double the 57 trillion cf of reserves previously recorded. Plus some of the oilsand methods are burning some of the oilsands to get the rest flowing (THAI/Capris)

http://www.journalofcommerce.com/article/id27093
Bruce power has applied to build 4 nuclear reactors in Alberta (4000MW)
First power could be 2017.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=akvrYI_jxuEY&refer=c...
April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Apache Corp., the U.S. oil and natural-gas company that has almost a quarter of its reserves in Canada, said three shale gas wells began production in British Columbia in the western part of the country.

The company said its stake in Ootla, about 60 miles from Fort Nelson in northeastern British Columbia, may hold 9 trillion to 16 trillion cubic feet of gas. Horizontal wells test flowed at rates of 8.8 million cubic feet, 6.1 million cubic feet and 5.3 million cubic feet of gas a day

This natural gas plus the Montney find in BC (50-80 trillion cf) and the Horn River basin.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/04/some-natural-gas-and-oil-plays.html

BC makes it easier to exploit natural gas
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080409.RGAS09/TPStory...

Quebec also has a large natural gas find. The Utica Shale based on some of the Canadian-based research on the play to date the size of the resource is being estimated between 24 and 30 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
http://www.financialpost.com/trading_desk/energy/story.html?id=436678

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/04/08/the-holy-grail-of-gas-p...
This shale is deep, making drilling more expensive. Second, year-round drilling in northern Canada is precluded by weather conditions, so the pace of development can never be as furious as that seen in the Barnett. These are just two reasons to help explain why EOG is only modeling a 20% after-tax rate of return in the Montney play