The Oil Drum

27 comments on Peak Oil Debunked? (Followed by a debunking of a debunker...)

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Bubba on August 25, 2005 - 3:06pm

Why does Peak Oil need to be debunked? I mean isn't the "market" the ultimate debunker? If Peak Oil is a house of cards it will collapse under its own weight and many of us will appear to be "Chicken Littles". If people are expending energy trying to debunk this idea, then you have to wonder what they are worried about.

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Dave Cohen on August 25, 2005 - 3:50pm

I agree Bubba. And "if people are expending energy trying to debunk this idea, then you have to wonder what they are worried about". Right. This will unfold over time and I believe time and "the market" is on our side.

Which brings up the point that peak oil needs to be taken seriously now but has not been yet. In fact, Jimmy Carter took it seriously in 1979. PO is getting a little more MSM coverage and that's good. But not nearly enough. Which brings us back to the usual discussion of "denial".

Look at the country-by-country CERA projections. And, I didn't even take Asian demand growth into consideration. Nor did I assert as Simmons does that Ghawar is peaking now (despite their ever-increasing water-cut).

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Stuart Staniford on August 25, 2005 - 9:47pm

People never take things seriously until after they happen. They start fire brigades after big fires, write earthquake codes after big earthquakes, start Departments of Homeland Security after planes fly into buildings etc. The same will apply to peak oil. People will only respond as the price goes high enough. All this debunking is good news. It means peak oil has gone from being ignored to being attacked. This phase will go on for a while, and the next is that everyone will claim it was obvious all along.

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old hermit on August 26, 2005 - 1:37pm

I hate to say this Stuart: But I've been walking around on this land for the last 70 yrs. and you are absolutely correct, People in this country haven't changed a bit ( well most of them ) in that whole time.

the hermit

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NC on August 25, 2005 - 5:28pm

As Dave has already stated. The problem is time. By the time the market has figured out there is a problem with oil supply it will be way past time to make effective changes. This site is consistant in focusing on the importance of getting a large percentage of people to recognize (admit?) to peak oil. Only after that point will true change in behaviour take place. Before that time we will continue to hear every lame excuse of why oil prices are high - speculation, oil companies greed, the weather, not enough rigs, not enough refineries, etc. etc. Since these were all predicted at this site months ago, I am more convinced than ever that we are at or very near the peak because the mass media is going from one excuse to another to justify why oil price has gone so high and continues to stay high. Everything EXCEPT peak oil production is listed on a daily basis.