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I assumme most have by now spotted this article on Westexas' talk at UCSB:
@WT:
If you weren't happily married, I'd say you should definitely use this pic in your online personal. I supposse you could still do so assuming the Alpha-Female in your life approved of said activities:
http://www.independent.com/news/2008/apr/16/peak-oil-means-much-higher-p...
It communicates:
1) I'm smart (the glasses)
2) I'm active (the outdoors motif)
3) I'm adventuresome (the Indiana Jones hat)
4) I don't take myself too seriously (the slightly goofy smile)
Just out of curiosity, was that taken by somebody from the newspaper or was it a vacation/trip pic you sent them? I'm guessing the latter since the pics the papers take usually suck.
You were kind enough not to note that I was working mightily on sucking the stomach in. Said image was taken by the extremely attractive Alpha Female in my life. UCSB didn't like the one I initially sent, which was basically a passport photo. (Definition of a successful geologist: one who has a spouse with a good job.)
Over on the EB link to the article, I posted a minor correction or two, and I noted that I was essentially presenting the excellent quantitative work that Khebab did in our Top Five Net Oil Exporters paper. The Independent writer did a good job of capturing the overall context of the event, but it's easy to miss some of the nuances and there were some minor errors (Saudi Arabia is the world's largest net oil exporter, but Russia is the largest oil producer).
I had fun tweaking the Santa Barbarans Tuesday night. I pointed out that if you drive out west of Fort Worth, you soon see wind generators as far as the eye can see--from horizon to horizon. I asked them why there weren't wind generators along the coastal range. Of course, they want to preserve their "view," but when they begin to contemplate the alternative, wind generators may become much more attractive to the eye with time.
It's all a matter of perspective. When I arrived at Texas A&M in 1975, shortly after A&M went coed (resulting in a huge ratio of males to females), I found that there were no unattractive girls at A&M. Some were just prettier than others (I borrowed this phrase from Robert Heinlein).
RE: Wind vs views
We've got the same issue out here. Best wind energy potential in entire SE US, but it is all on the ridgetops, which are all protected.
The thing is, our population around here is not that high, it would not take all that many WTs to provide us with the power WE need. That will probably happen eventually, as just a few WTs on a few peaks is something we could live with.
If WTs line every ridgetop in order to fully utilize the potential resource, it would be to generate surplus power for the cities in the Piedmont. Folks here in the mountains would be justified in asking why our views (upon which our tourism-based local economy depends) should be spoiled just so that exurban McMansions in Charlotte or Atlanta can continue to be kept at 74F in the winter and 68F in the summer?
That is a good picture.
When were you at Olduvai?
Bob
Of course, there are some wind farms in California's coast ranges, though not by Santa Barbara. There's a big one along the 580 corridor between Livermore and Tracy in Altamont pass, and a smaller one on Pacheco Pass overlooking the San Luis Reservoir. I think all the other big CA wind farms are on mountains abutting the desert, or in the desert near a pass--Tehachapi to Mojave or near Palm Springs, etc. The timing of wind in those places is often a good match to air conditioning load.
Mark Folsom
I had the opportunity to ask some people in Livermore what they thought of the wind farms and they didn't like them them because they're noisy and it drives the land prices down. My guess however is that those turbines are the older type with props that spin very quickly. I used to live in Wyoming and got about 1/3 of my power from a wind farm (unfortunately I had to pay for the privilege). They were pretty different from the ones in Livermore or in southern california: they had a transmission on them so they'd change gear to suit the wind speed and keep the props rotating at a constant rate. This keeps the noise down and increases the lifetime of the prop (less stress fractures). Also, they'd stop themselves and turn to face the wind when it changed directions. Even hiking around the base of the hill it was on you couldn't hear anything. I can't remember talking to anyone who lived there who thought those were a bad thing, but gorgeous vistas are in no short supply in Wyoming and maybe people won't miss a few of them.
The Altamont Pass wind farm is definitely one of the older ones.
Westexas,
Just to put you at your ease, it's not just because you have a pretty face that we like to read your postings.
One question: you are reported as having said that "if a wind farm were placed on Santa Cruz Island, it would supply 100 times the energy needed by Santa Barbara".
Santa Barbara has a population of approx. 90 thousand. According to your calculations that means that by converting Santa Cruz Island (approx 35 km long x 7 km wide) into a wind farm it would provide enough energy for 9 million people.
Are you sure about that? It sounds like a tall story to me.
I can't vouch for the amount of electricity you could produce, but the area around Santa Cruz island is one of the windiest places in California.
Hmmm - according to the Mountains Conservancy
"Santa Cruz Island supports more than a thousand species of plants and animals, including 12 found nowhere else on Earth. Among these unique species is the island fox, an endearing creature the size of a small house cat. Historically, island foxes have occupied the top spot in the Channel Islands food chain. But in recent years, predatory golden eagles have laid waste to the native island fox population on Santa Cruz. The Nature Conservancy is working with the National Park Service, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and other partners on a science-based Island Fox Recovery Project to save the fox from extinction."
Don't raptors have real problems dealing with windfarms? (Altamont Calif. closes it's windmills each year for a couple months for bird migrations - mostly raptors are victims I believe)
so that's how you sell it as a win-win - Santa Barbara county gets renewable energy from Santa Cruz Island and the eagles that are wiping out an endangered species get taken care of (in a Sopranos meaning of the term "taken care of"). Everybody wins and we can keep the wineries of Santa Ynez producing excellent syrahs post-peak (now in other words).
I gave three presentations at UCSB, and the wind number came from one of the UCSB prof's at the second presentation. He may have been talking about locating windfarms on all of the islands offshore from Santa Barbara County.
Where my Alpha-Females at?
Slightly Goofy Smile
Outdoors Motif
^_^
For a few seconds, I thought also it was a picture for the new Indiana Jones movie.
It is,
Spielberg and Ford just don't know it yet.
'Men will kill for it, men like you and me..'
'..I am a shadowy reflection of you. It would take only a small nudge to make you like me..'
-Belloq,(Paul Lacey) Raiders of the Lost Ark
Westexas & Khebab starring in:
Indiana Jones & the Net Export Crash: Electrify or Die
BTW, I should have mentioned up top that I met a lot of really smart people (in Khebab's league, not mine) at UCSB doing some very important work, especially on energy efficiency and photovoltaics, among other topics, and the highlight of the trip for me was having dinner with a group of professors and one of their Nobel Laureates Monday night.
i think that is the khebab........er i mean kaibab limestone in the background.
Sorry I could not resist:
That could be used for your next presentation, we need to sexup the peak oil dossier.
This is too good. My wife got a huge kick out of it. Too bad the real bod doesn't match the graphic. Could you e-mail this to me as an attachment?
We appear to have a difference of opinion regarding oil exports:
http://www.business24-7.ae/cs/article_show_mainh1_story.aspx?HeadlineID=...
GCC (Middle Eastern) crude exports set to double in 2030
By Nadim Kawach on Wednesday, April 16 , 2008
Out (Khebab/Brown) middle case has Saudi Arabia specifically, and the top five net oil exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran, UAE) collectively approaching zero net oil exports around 2031, and I estimate that the top five 2006 and 2007 net export decline averaged about 900,000 bpd, from a peak of 23.5 mbpd in 2005, on track to approach zero in the 2031 time frame.
Below your comment in the thread is the recent quote by King Abdullah. I interpret him as saying KSA will behave as if they've peaked and stage a managed decline for the future generations' benefit, which is akin to Campbell's Protocol. I think many of us would like to read your comment on the King's statement. Thanks.
Jeff, thanks for the link. I hope you got as big a laugh out of it as I did. I liked this quote from Mr. van Hulst:
Apparently Russia hasn't gotten the word. Most reports out of Russia paint a bleak picture of Russian oil production in the future, saying it peaked in 2007 and is set to decline sharply in the next several years. Mr van Hulst should ring them up and straighten them out immediately. Those damn Russians don't seem to have a clue as how much oil they really have.
Ron Patterson
Curiously, the 17 mbpd figure is exactly 3% export growth from 2006 to 2030. 3% being the average growth expected for Business as usual.
In short, it's wishful thinking!
This Noe van Hulst chap must have an Excel spreadsheet that is only capable of calculating one row of calculations at a time...
Did he not even consider the obvious internal growth in demand of their own product, its incredibly blinkered stuff.
Anyone care to work out what the GROSS Middle East Output would have to rise to given their current internal demand growth? (Is it as simple as 36 + 18mbpd ?)
Nick.
Needs to be carrying coil of geophones. Otherwise, LOL!