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247 comments on DrumBeat: April 22, 2008

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Gail the Actuary on April 22, 2008 - 10:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

From the WSJ article:

But the [Khurais] project also illustrates a darker point: Even in Saudi Arabia, home to more than a quarter of the world's known recoverable reserves, the age of cheap and easily pumped oil is over.

"Khurais and Manifa are the last two giants in Saudi Arabia," says Sadad al-Husseini, a former Aramco vice president for oil exploration. "Sure, we will discover dozens of other smaller fields, but after these, we are chasing after smaller and smaller fish."

The second quote especially seems to contradict some of the assumptions of those who are expecting endless increases in production from the middle east.

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westexas on April 22, 2008 - 10:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And what does it tell you when their only two potential one mbpd range fields are problem plagued fields that the Saudis have barely bothered to produce in the past? BTW, waterfloods, especially in a lower permeability reservoir, are never sure things.

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olepossom on April 22, 2008 - 11:24am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It tells me that oil has been rising at about 20 cents a day for the past six months or so, and that there is no end in sight. It tells me that Shell is sending their people out to NPR, trying to let everyone know that we have two choices: cooperation in powering down, or a "scramble" for resources involving young men in kevlar, tanks, and helicopters. Shell isn't saying that last part out loud, of course, but what else does a scramble between nations mean?

There seems to be an emerging pr campaign: Shell says cooperate as oil production floats downward, Saudi says we are saving some unknown, hidden fields for our grandchildren. Just different ways of saying the peak was probably in 2005, and hang on for the ride.

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ken1 on April 23, 2008 - 3:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Good to point out Shell's recent PR/educational moves.
My colleague comments on the Shell scramble/blueprint scenarios here:

http://www.commoncurrent.com/notes/2008/04/shell-oil-scenario-oil-supply...

Since he and I work more on the "blueprint" side of government policy and programs, the blog discusses our efforts there.

Cheers.
Ken

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mlr on April 22, 2008 - 10:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That's great news that some people are pulling their heads out of the sand. Now if only the same could be said for the IMF's Lipsky:

"While oil demand has remained robust, the supply side response to rising prices has been disappointing."

Is it just me, or is that like saying "Bad Dog!" to the dingo that just ate your baby?

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umass82 on April 22, 2008 - 1:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Their heads were actually in their own tookus' and apparently that is where Lipsky's (and Yergin's et. al.) still is (are). Perhaps if their heads were in the sand they could have seen that there was less oil there than they had been positing.

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