My impression was that you're approaching the thermohaline inversion backward. It's not that it would plunge us into a new ice age, it's that it *might* plunge *northern Europe* into a new ice age. Warm water from the mid-atlantic flows north past the US continental shelf, turns east when it hits southward-running cold currents coming off Greenland's east coast, and then procedes to do a loop around England, Scandinavia, and the Arctic Ocean. Vacation spots in France, Italy, and Spain are at the same latitude (and therefore get the same amount of solar flux coming into their atmosphere) as snowy Vermont. London lines up with polar bear country in Hudson Bay. Denmark is at the same latitude as parts of Alaska. The main thing keeping these areas relatively warm are surface ocean currents, and the air blowing east off of them. It's one of the major reasons that the term has become "global climate change" instead of "global warming."

At the moment, I think the consensus is optimistic about all this, because it has recently been pointed out that previous simulations which showed the currents shutting down entirely did not take into account prevailing wind patterns.

It's a cautionary note that mirrors one of Schneier's Laws - Any person can design a climate simulation or theory that they are unable to detect flaws in.

I have seen people predicting that a shutdown of the Gulf Stream would give us a climate like Newfoundland or Siberia. They seem to asume it would be like Newfoundland and Siberia in the pre greenhouse world. In fact isn't Siberia hotting up quite a bit? Hence the melting bogs. Perhaps while the rest of the world heats up a shutdown would leave Northern Europe with a climate similar to the pre greenhouse norm.

Most of the world isn't showing damning, significant proof of GW one way or the other, in terms of average temperatures. The Arctic Circle, on the other hand... has exceeded all reasonably detailed models for the last few years, killing polarbears, melting permafrost, and opening up the Northwest Passage for the first time in historical memory. Things are not just at record highs, they're at landscape-changing highs - the Magnetic North Pole reaching *room temperature* in a summer heat wave. If the frightening regional temperature trendlines continue, we won't have a summertime Arctic ice pack to speak of in a decade, and Greenland's glaciers will be affecting water levels much, much sooner than people expected. Here's to hoping it's some freak abberation.

The fact that we don't really have any idea WTF is going to happen, but that a CO2 canopy's directly measurable effects are pretty clearly going to do *something* heat-related, is as scary to scientists as it is comforting to pro-corporate interests. Can raw, justifiable FUD ever coalesce into action when pitted against moneyed interests? We shall see.