 | Who is MOST to blame for the closure of the Forties Pipeline? | The Oil Drum | Grangemouth/Forties Update: Forties pipeline remains shut down (Thread 2) |  |
206 comments on DrumBeat: April 27, 2008
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206 comments on DrumBeat: April 27, 2008
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Thanks. That was very useful and helps avoid a lot of fuzzy analysis that wants to blame this mostly on exchange rates. Further, exchange rates may be even less important if one considers the possibility that part of the reason the dollar has gone down is because of increased trade deficits which are clearly related to the demand for oil and the price of oil. So we proabably have a positive feedback effect of oil prices which is helping to drive down the value of the dollar. Maybe that could be quantified in some way, too. Could that be your next project?
For doing what you were talking about I should do a correlation analysis, something I'll probably do later on. It may show that the increase in the real value of oil is driving the exchange rates, not the other way round.
I think it can be shown and I could do it in a keypost, because it takes a lot of space (and time) to do, and I simply do not want to litter this thread with my graphs. (So if someone asks me to do it, I will.)
However, I'm doing one more thing now. In the next step, I'm going to eliminate the exchange rate altogether, working the exchange rate values into the real price of the dollar.
You should start your own blog, if you don't have one. You can get a free blog from Blogger, WordPress, etc., if you don't want to pay for hosting. Posting something that's taken a lot of work like this in the comments is a shame, because it will be hard to find or reference later, and search engines may not pick it up. Trying to follow along if this turns out to be a series will be near impossible.
More than one of our key posts started out as a post in the contributor's personal blog.
OK, thanks for the advice. :-)
Sorry for littering the thread with all these numbers and graphs, but I thought it was useful to post it here. It didn't take that long, 2-3 hours at most.
It's really not about all this going into a keypost or not. I may start a blog later on, but writing blogs and keyposts is not the issue I'm after. :-) I just thought you guys can use it here, and after having read the site for a long time and having learned an awful lot here I felt like giving something back to the community. Contribution... or else, I'm not sure what to call it.
So thank you again for your patience and for all the knowledge you all helped me pick up at TOD. I really appreciate it.
(And I hope you don't find all my long posts offensive. I won't do it often, I promise.)
They're not offensive. If they were, I'd delete them. ;-)
It's just a matter of practicality. The comments of a DrumBeat really isn't the place to post lengthy original work.
I thought for awhile that we might go with a format like DailyKos, where everyone can post their own diaries, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. So I'd like to encourage people to get their own blogs at Blogger or wherever. I have one myself, here.
You've just convinced me. I'll do this blog thingy. :-) I'll get back to you in a few days with more detailed analysis and data, but that time around with a single URL and maybe a pic or two.