Jerome's excellent article is another good reason never to miss TOD. One caveat, though:

This [the fact that a small local conflict can have a global impact - CO] is both a sign of our increased vulnerability to a tight oil supply/demand balance, and possibly a sign of hope that the balance of power between financiers and the rest of the world is finally changing as reality (and in particular physical and human bottlenecks) reasserts itself against the mad rush for short term profit.

I'm not sure about the 'sign of hope' and whether reality will prevail over the 'mad rush for short-term profit'. The 'mad rush' (in non-judgemental terms: human nature in action) might even get madder – if not with an eye to short term profits, then in the hope of cutting one's losses. The situation is so disastrous that most investors would be quite happy just to break even. And I don't think Jerome's tone of moral indignation will move the ball down the field. Moral indignation, even when justified, tends to cloud judgement and foster a good-guy bad-guy approach to the human predicament. Do I detect a sense of glee that 'reality' will drag down the financiers and 'corporate shrills' along with the rest of us?

After all, what are the striking workers' aspirations but to max out and, if necessary, let the devil take the hindmost? When it comes to being 'shrills', trade unions are well able to match the other side of industry. In my view they are neither more deserving, nor less deserving, than their employer. No doubt most of us would do the same in their position. I wish them luck but remember that if they win, others will lose. Not just the fat cats and managers, but also the future beneficiaries of pension funds that have invested in the Grangemouth company. We are entering the age of zero-sum games and so not all will have prizes.

Your point about moral indignation is a fair one, and duly noted.

I also agree that the mad rush is "human nature in action" but would add the proviso: "when encouraged rather than limited by institutions, rules and societal norms. Today's financial capitalism is clearly striking a different balance than the one the USA enjoyed 40 years ago, and it's hard to say that today's is creating prosperity, or to say that thoe one 40 years ago was communism (and yet that's what today's discourse essentially claims).

The discourse has moved so far in one direction that one needs to be a bit shrill to re-create the reality of an alternative to today's common wisdom.

Do I detect a sense of glee that 'reality' will drag down the financiers and 'corporate shrills' along with the rest of us?

As a financier myself, I'd rather live in a system which is fair and sustainable and less likely to be toppled by a revolution. anything that brings financiers down today appears to me to be a good thing overall, even if not entirely so for me personally in the short term.

Thanks for your reply, Jerome.

anything that brings financiers down today appears to me to be a good thing overall ...

Well, I hope you will be one of the few who doesn't end up in the sans-culottes department as soon as the merde hits the fan. :-)

Sacrebleu! I'm surpised that there aren't more financiers out there spilling the beans like yourself, on a par with those repentant (and retired) petroleum geologists who put peak oil on the agenda some years ago. Quel dommage. There must be at least some of them who have an inkling of the impossibility of exponential growth outside the domain of pure mathematics, even if they have never heard of Garrett Hardin, Georgescu-Roegen and co because they were too busy making money to read anything more intellectually demanding than Paris Match. I mean old guys who have no financial worries and who might win brownie points for the next world by raising consciousness about the upcoming Grand Guignol. But obviously mankind's ability to deceive itself is unlimited.

As to pension-related contractual obligations. I wonder whether the term 'contractual' is le mot juste. Aren't we now entering the world of force majeure, where contracts will hardly be worth the paper they are printed on, like those German banknotes after WWI?

And pardon my French.