The naiveté strikes me as plain stupid. It is very easy to understand that yes, the politicians do understand these fundamentals...

Personally, I think that's naive. I don't believe they do understand. The EIA and USGS are both saying that oil production is going to keep growing. Both sides believe we can maintain the status quo. The Republicans think we need more drilling; the Democrats think we need to mandate more biofuels. Neither side actually understands the seriousness of the situation, or they would be more willing to confront it.

If either party believed the threat was serious and imminent, there would be no fear in discussing serious mitigation efforts.

I think the truth is somewhere inbetween. They understand somewhat, but other voices are telling them: nothing to worry about BAU. A quote (I can't remember whose -so my apologies in advance) that it appropriate is:
"Don't expect a man to understand something on which his job requires that he doesn't". And the political application process is such that they can't afford to understand PO.

A small suggestion on bullet (2): It would be better, not to compute the expected revenues from the gas tax and set this amount into law. Much better would be to earmark the revenues to the people. That way the amount adjusts with the revenue, and corrective political action is not required when assumptions are proven wrong. It is all too easy to game a revenue neutral proposal such as your, by say overestimating revenue -and turning it into a tax cut.

Agreed. I don't think there's some big conspiracy where they all know about peak oil, but won't talk about it in public. OTOH, at least some politicians clearly do understand the problem. Republican Roscoe Barlett, for example. He may give his peak oil speeches to the cleaning staff, but they're on the record. Democrat Bill Clinton has given talks about peak oil, and Al Gore has mentioned it, too.

I think they know about it. Some of them, anyway. After all, most of them are old enough to remember the '70s energy crises. But they think we'll innovate our way out of it, as we always have in the past.

Like Tom Whipple said...politicians have so much on their plates already. Unless you can give them a solid and imminent date ("the gas stations will go dry July 3, 2008"), it won't be a priority for them.

A quote (I can't remember whose -so my apologies in advance) that it appropriate is:
"Don't expect a man to understand something on which his job requires that he doesn't".

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it." -- Upton Sinclair

Sorry , Robert, your proposals are totally inadequate. A 50% increase in prices spread over 5 years will reduce car mileage by about 10%. In France taxes are 70% of the pump price. You need to aim for at least $11.50 in the US just for starters. Then increase substantially each year.

By so understating the size of change really needed you are just breeding more complacency.

I disagree. The problem is defining the problem your trying to solve.

Now with that lets talk about the solution.

I'd say its Equitable ELP or shared ELP in other words the goal is sustainable economies that are energy neutral with a decent living standard for all. Obviously somehow population levels have to be brought into the issue but maybe this can be done by determining carrying capacity and developing target population levels.

A important detail but to move on.

Next you have to determine the time period in which to reach these goals. Communist style 5-10-20 year plans are a good way to at least talk about when to do things.

Then you talk about what to do.

From this approach it becomes obvious that one of the biggest problems is why are people driving all over the place in the beginning ? We need to focus on our work habits first and foremost since most of our energy expense is related to work not leisure. Can companies get satellite offices subsidized so workers can shorten their commutes ?

Can we get a national law to support commuters that take public transport ?
So instead of increasing taxes for roads. You decrease taxes for those that use public transport and redirect current taxes to fund public transport.
So say 50% of current taxes used for roads gets redirected to public transport.
Lightly traveled roads are privatized and taken out of the public domain. Same with the interstate system. We have good ways to collect tolls electronically and these can readily be made better. So toll collection should not interfere with traffic flow. This can be tied into GPS and if you put your route in you can calculate the tolls.

If you allow credit then people that don't pay their toll bill can have their cars confiscated.

By privatizing the roads we force the costs off the cities and onto the users.

You do the same for all the old infrastructure electric/sewage etc for suburbia. If you can really afford it then you get to use it.

Robert - Thank-you for taking the initiative and writing a letter that is commendable and prescient. For historical reference it will be interesting to review that letter say five years from now.

However I think you are sophisticated enough to know that the Federal Govt. is dysfunctional and deaf. National Politics is now truly a mockery of a travesty of a sham. I don't have any specific staticstics to back that up however. I read this blog regularly and I am impressed on a daily basis on the thoroughness of statistical information. I did however work for the Federal Govt for almost twenty years. Inertia overwhelms every department. Each year governmental management grows exponentially. Elected represenatives hardly mattered then and I wouldn't imagine that it has become more responsive.

The best thing that we can do is secure lifeboats for ourselves and not look to the govt. for help. Imagine Katrina...now multiply that by a factor of ?

However I think you are sophisticated enough to know that the Federal Govt. is dysfunctional and deaf.

Yes, this letter was written more out of frustration than anything. That's why I have to roll my eyes when people suggest that I am naive for thinking anything will happen as a result. Of course I don't expect anything to happen as a result. I didn't write it with the expectation that anything would change. But I do want to point out that I think there are ways to ease a rough road ahead. And someday - and it's already pretty late in the game - politicians are going to ask "What do we do now?"

Robert - Had to laugh when I read this. We were apparently writing nearly the same article--most of the same points, with a different focus--at the same time yesterday. Nicely done. Here's mine: Peak Oil: Living on the Banks of Denial.

I think all of your proposals are very sensible...which probably dooms them to never seeing the light of day.

As Leanan pointed out downthread, the fear of political suicide still seems to rule the day. Which suggests that we'll continue in our denial until we are forced to do otherwise. Just ask Jimmy Carter.

The fault for that is another question: Is it the clueless voter who won't support a candidate who tells them the ugly truth? Is it the media who favor business' vested interests above all else? Is it a lack of courage or knowledge on the part of the candidates?

As I suggested in my article, I think it's all of the above and more. If you look at society as a whole as if it were a person in the process of grieving, I think it brings the big picture into better focus.

Robert - "And someday - and it's already pretty late in the game - politicians are going to ask 'What do we do now?'"

You're exactly right about that. I'm into metaphors lately, and I think the comparison to Bradburry's "Farenheit 451" and the "Book People" is apt. In the story the Book People were attacked and persecuted for the illegal actions of reading books. They adapted by memorizing the books and waiting for the time when society would once again need books.

People in the MSM derisively refer to people who listen to blogs like the Oil Drum as "doomsayers". The truth is individuals who post, blog and follow sites like this are in fact societies best hope in the long run. For me I am grateful that places like this exist...