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30 comments on Abqaiq and Eat It Too (or, More Geological Analysis of Potential Saudi Depletion)

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garyp on May 15, 2008 - 11:07am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Key Question.

The first graph suggests production of 49% of OOIP in 2006. However the 1993 'yellow ring' plots and the later cross section data suggests a much greater production of oil - well into the later percentage numbers. The shape of the decay in production after the early 90s backs that up.

Which are we to believe ?

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JoulesBurn on May 15, 2008 - 11:24am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Many things are not known, including the scale for the 1993 oil thickness maps (or "yellow ring plot"). Even in regions outside the gray area, there is maybe 40' of oil. Then, there is Hanifa, which hasn't been depleted that much. More than 50% of the Arab-D has been produced. Finally, the cross section from the north might not be representative of the south.

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garyp on May 15, 2008 - 11:35am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Even if everything else was full zone 1 thickness, that's still just 1.9Gbarrels. Even if the yellow area is full thickness remaining, it still looks by eye to be well past 60-70% - and that's 1993, let alone now. Hanifa from your own words looks to be based on some serious wishful thinking in terms of projections vs troubles encountered.

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elwoodelmore on May 15, 2008 - 11:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

what is uerr ? i am assuming it means ultimate economic recoverable reserves ?

but that is ksa speak.

recoverable reserves are taken, by the sec at least, to mean remaining reserves. oil that has already been produced is not called reserves.
maybe uero (ultimate economic recoverable oil)would be more definitive.

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JoulesBurn on May 15, 2008 - 12:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

UERR is somewhat of a contradiction.

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JoulesBurn on May 15, 2008 - 12:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I hear ya, Gary. Using their production figures, an additional 2.9 Gb was produced from 1993-2006, and that had to come from somewhere. They had a similar thickness map (though with 3D perspective) from 2006 that had less yellow but still there.

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30 comments on Abqaiq and Eat It Too (or, More Geological Analysis of Potential Saudi Depletion)

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