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220 comments on DrumBeat: May 1, 2008

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costa rica Johns on May 1, 2008 - 9:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Is demand destruction what is causing the cost of oil to crash or something else? Seems like it has gone from 120 to 112 more rapidly than it went from 112 to 120. Geopolitically, there doesn't seem to be any reason that explains this. Nigeria is still in chaos, Cantarell still crashing, and we are even closer to war with Iran.

I am neither a geologist nor an economist, just a layman fan of this site who depends on the Drum Beat and the Automatic Earth for his news and is perplexed by these radical fluctuations.

Thanks.

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RalphW on May 1, 2008 - 9:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The UK refinery dispute is settled. North Sea back up to full flow. The dollar is gaining and that weakens oil as commodity of last resort.

This week's US inventory report exceeded expectations.

Some posters on TOD have been predicting a price fallback the last few days. There is some marginal evidence of reduced US demand.

Increased volatility is to be expected. In a few months $120 will be a distant memory.

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xeroid on May 1, 2008 - 10:20am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The UK refinery dispute is settled

Sadly not true!

The union completed it's planned two day stoppage, but there is no resolution to the dispute!

Prices rise and fall a few percent over short periods in any free market. For oil, each peak in the price is higher than the previous one, this is nothing new, it's been going on for ten years or so now - IMO, at the very least, it signifies 'peak lite'.

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RalphW on May 1, 2008 - 10:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/01/tradeunions.oil

All the signs are that the Grangemouth oil refinery workers, whose two-day pensions strike closed the Forties North Sea oil and gas pipeline earlier this week, have scored a significant victory. A joint statement issued by Ineos, the refinery's owner, and the oil workers' union, Unite, was soothingly bland and face-saving after talks in London on Tuesday. But insiders say the outcome is unequivocal. Faced with such a decisive demonstration of industrial strength, Jim Ratcliffe, the secretive billionaire chairman of Ineos, has bowed to the inevitable. In exchange for a commitment to future negotiation, he has agreed to withdraw his decision to close the final-salary pension scheme for new employees and to reduce existing benefits from the beginning of August.

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xeroid on May 1, 2008 - 5:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes - as you can see the boss has backed down, for now, as long as the Union is willing to negotiate, ie:compromise - it isn't clear that they are.

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WNC Observer on May 1, 2008 - 10:12am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Keep in mind that all commodities, including oil, will fluctuate short term. The thing is that while oil might occasionally go down, it will go up more often than it will go down, and the ups will be up more than the downs will be down.

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saskwind on May 1, 2008 - 12:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This site graphically shows the recent ups and downs in the oil price. What is happening now fits the pattern.

http://www.oilnergy.com/1onymex.htm

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Peak_a_Boo on May 1, 2008 - 5:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

SO now is good time to buy...i think Moe Gamble said wait till it goes to 109

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the_rage on May 1, 2008 - 10:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Paging moe_gamble - thoughts on the selloff?

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GreyZone on May 1, 2008 - 11:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Just a few days ago, Moe was looking for a selloff to act as his new buy in point. I suspect he may have found it. Of course as I recall, Moe got in back aroung $99-$105 per barrel anyway.

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