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155 comments on DrumBeat: May 4, 2008
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155 comments on DrumBeat: May 4, 2008
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Two out of three? Try three out of three. One of the reasons Obama is against the gas tax holiday is that he says it doesn't work: prices will rise to make up for the tax cut. He is in favor of stopping oil purchases for the SPR - in order to lower prices for us drivers.
Nobody currently running is going to say we need to raise gas prices. Heck, even the Green Party isn't going to tell people they have to drive less. Their stance on it, last time I checked, was to switch all cars over to natural gas. Yeah, that'll work.
::sniff, sniff:: Ahhh, the sweet smell of sarcasm in the morning. Fresh as dew on a new blossom.
Ditto in Germany. When the Greens proposed raising the price of petrol to 5DM / liter (approx. €2,50) in their draft programme for the 1998 Federal Elections, the media reaction was so hostile that it soon became clear that they risked wiping themselves out. The realpolitiker in the party were quick to re-write the draft programme and the idea was eventually dropped. I don't think it's been heard of again.
German-speaking TOD readers might like to consult the chronology of this cautionary tale here:
http://www.politik.uni-mainz.de/kai.arzheimer/bamberg/Bamberg.html
You have left off the entire framework of various German Ökosteuer (call them environmental taxes in German), including the raising of the gasoline tax in steps over a period of 5 years - 'Die Mineralölsteuer wurde nach ökologischen Kriterien gestaffelt; dabei wurden bestimmte Verwendungszwecke begünstigt. Von 1999 bis 2003 wurde die Steuer mehrmals erhöht.' http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%96kosteuer
The Greens are a very interesting case, since it is easy to attack some of their more naive proposals - including, from what I have been told, the idea of only using animals to farms, coming from the very beginning of the Green Party.
Of course, for years the CDU insisted that women's proper role did not involve such jobs as actually being the Chancellor, but oddly, no one makes fun of how the CDU has compromised its principles by having Merkel the head of the party.
Expat,
I was writing a comment, not a treatise. My point is that no political party can afford to bite the bullet and call for a radical increase in fuel taxation -- least of all today. But thanks for the information on the 'gradualist' approach.
There's nothing 'naive' as such about proposing a hike in fuel tax. What's naive is expecting that you will be able to convince more than 1% of the electorate that it's not naive.
As to Angela Merkel -- political parties couldn't care less about the sex of their leaders provided they win at election time. Margaret Thatcher (first leading politician to cotton on to climate change, BTW) had no problems with the Tories either. Where did you get the idea that the CDU had any principled opposition to women PMs?
Mainly because the conservative Catholic part of the CDU was a devoted follower of the 'Kinder, Küche, Kirche' framework - 'a German slogan translated “children, kitchen, church”. In present-day Germany, it has a derogative connotation describing an antiquated female role model. The phrase is vaguely equivalent to the English Barefoot and pregnant.' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinder,_K%C3%BCche,_Kirche (not a very good link)
And it is not exactly a coincidence that Merkel is East German - most West German women found more hospitable political homes in other parties, in part because most West German women who wanted to live in ways not encompassed by traditional role models pretty much realized that the CDU was their opponent, at least in the past.
Things change, of course. Now, the Christian Democratic mayor of Hamburg (who while gay, is not in a civil union like the SPD mayor of Hamburg or the head of the FDP) is allied with the Greens to retain power. A generation ago, the CDU was also the most reliably anti-gay party.
As pointed out by Radlafari, the 5 mark tax died, but increased taxation of energy did not.
The Greens are to a major extent being proved correct in their forecasts - I would not say that raising energy taxes is political suicide in Germany, at least as long as it is coupled with positive benefits - the growing number of PV system installations and home insulation standards being concrete examples.
The original Green tax proposal was clumsy, and then whipped into a firestorm by the Bild. What is forgotten is how Kohl raised the gasoline tax several times, without the same accompanying outrage.
That is true. And it shows that it isn't so much the message that comes to voters, but even more the person who sends it. Always reminds me of Franz-Josef Degenhardt's lyrics:
".. und wer alt war, galt als weise,
und wer dick war galt als stark.
Und den dicken Alten glaubte man
aufs Wort und ohne Arg .."
Five deutschmarks for a litre of gas (this compares to ~$14 the gallon today) was widely perceived as completely overdrawn in 1998. However, after the green-red coalition took power in late 1998 they soon imposed an additional tax on petrol, the "Oeko-Steuer", which remained untouched when the new coalition government (without the greens) in 2005 took power.
The top article about Dion in CA proposing to increase taxes on energy shows that at least a few politicians are willing to take it on. That sounds like policy implementation along lines of Homer-Dixon at BC NDP Convention.
Conventional politicians - coming from and representing the developer and business-as-usual class - are not going to take on transformative issues. They will delay and avoid them as long as possible. For the most part, those proposing solutions will have to challenge from outside any major party structure. Hint, hint, nudge, nudge to any of you so inclinded.
cfm in Gray, ME
I think change is possible, but it won't come from the Oval Office. Not in the current political climate.
These days, it seems change is coming from the grassroots level. An example is gay marriage. It started on the state and local level, with mayors of scattered cities granting marriage licenses to gay couples, and with one state, Massachusetts, making gay marriage legal. This totally freaked out the Democratic party, which correctly saw this as a losing issue on the national level. I think they probably did pay the price; Bush's victory in 2004 seems to have been driven at least partly by opposition to gay marriage. But overall, I have to say it was a victory for gay rights advocates. Acceptance of gay marriage has progressed far faster than I ever imagined possible. I thought they were making a big mistake by pushing it - that it was too early, and that there would be a big backlash. I was wrong.
A model like that is more likely to work than hoping the president "sees the light" on peak oil. Already, states are taking the lead on environmental issues (and being sued by the EPA for their trouble). The ultimate goal may be a national policy, but the start is grassroots.
But, but, "gay marriage" isn't...
"Marriage", to many of us, is the union between a man and a woman. OK, I know that lots of other folks (perhaps you, Leanan), don't see it that way, but that's the way the word has been defined for centuries. A legal recognition of the joining between 2 of like sex might be called a "civil union" or something like that, but, a "marriage" it would not be. It's sort of like saying that the word, "red" means the same as the word "green".
I'm not concerned with the religious point of view, so forget that batch of arguments. The way I look at it, for what it's worth, is that society long ago decided to promote the union between a man and a woman as the best way to reproduce and educate the young, because that's what works. As a result, society (in the form of governments) has given various subsidies to those who have chosen "marriage". In so doing, society has discriminated against other social arrangements, such as 2 gays living as a couple. Society has also decided that it's bad for teenagers to have sex and states have laws defining statutory rape (i.e., sex with someone less than, say, age 18) as a crime. Prostitution and polygamy also illegal in almost all states. How many rational people would advocate making these other activities legal?
What the "gay rights" advocates want is to have their sexual orientation legalized and to be able to enjoy the same subsidies which accrue to those who are married. Well, I think that's a bad idea for society. Witness the frequent failure of children from single parent households. Perhaps a better idea would be civil unions for every sort of arrangement, with no subsidies of any sort. That might actually help reduce population growth, as the tax breaks and other benefits for making babies would go away too.
May we live in interesting times...:<(
E. Swanson
That wasn't really my point. I was talking about how to achieve political change in this country, not the benefits of marriage, for anyone. But hey, the ideal family structure could be sort of considered on topic, I guess.
Even if you're right...words change meaning all the time. Even words for colors. English is a living language, and all that.
That is simply not correct. Other societies have allowed gay marriage, and polygyny, and even polyandry. Marriage is basically an economic contract. When the economy changes, so does the nature of marriage.
I don't see how that follows. If it's bad for children to come from single parent households (and I think that's questionable), then you should encourage marriage of all kinds. A child living with two parents of the same gender is not a child from a single parent household. Many states already allow gay couples to adopt and foster children, and of course, just because you are gay doesn't mean you can't have biological children.
FWIW...I think the "natural" family structure for children is the extended family. Not the nuclear family, which is an odd fluke and basically the product of the industrial age. Yes, having two parents is better than having one. But having three or four is better than having two. It's the ratio of parents to children that matters most.
Erm, seems to me we may want to applaud, even encourage gay marriage. After all, wouldn't this affect population growth in a negative, and therefore positive, way?
(The sarcasm glass is half full, here.)
Dunno about marriage in particular, but I could see homosexuality being encouraged in a society that was concerned about sustainability. In fact, that may have been the case in Japan. They were very accepting of homosexuality (and to this day are accepting of it in ways Americans find shocking). I suspect it was one of the ways they dealt with population issues. They are also very accepting of abortion compared to us, and have a tradition of relatively late marriage compared Europe.
"but I could see homosexuality being encouraged in a society that was concerned about sustainability"
There used to be a joke Leanan: "I can remember when sex was dirty and the air was clean."
The USA is young in population and historically immature unlike India, China, Japan or Europe. Also when it comes to prioritizing our landbase we have behaved like adolescents with Daddy's credit card. I can't think of a credible argument that all of this "infrastructure" has been worth what we gave up in exchange: clean air, healthy forests, stable eco-systems. When I hear arguments that we're going to somehow keep all of it going, all I can do is shake my head and say, "not gonna happen".
30 years from now (if we are able to continue to grow our population exponentially) people will have a dramatically different attitude about procreation. Forget about gay politics, how about vesectomies for teenage boys? Too bold you say. Circumstances change and so do peoples views. Granting tax subsidies for children, welfare payments for unwed, unemployed mothers and large families tooling around in Chevy Tahoes are soon to be tossed on the historical trashheap along with strong central governments and the golden age of the American Dollar.
Human Populations will either be reduced through social engineering or we'll get a new Dictator: Gaia.
References to vasectomies are illogical-you could sterilize 95% of all human males without lowering population growth at all. If actual lessening of population growth is the goal, you need to sterilize the female population-one guy can father literally thousands of offspring.
Brian, wake up, you're having a wet dream!
The number of sperm a guy can generate is hardly a determinant of how many kids he could Actually father. There are those thousands of potential mothers who might have some influence in the guy's effluents.
Jok: Wake up-you're talking nonsense again. In terms of population growth, the human female is the limiting factor. This isn't a question to debate or ponder.
"If actual lessening of population growth is the goal, you need to sterilize the female population-one guy can father literally thousands of offspring."
As the saying goes, you're not even wrong. Talking about massive, forced sterilizations of either gender is a ticket to insurrection and pop. overreaction, in the first place. If you have a goal of lessening pop growth, educating and supporting women is what works. This also gives decent odds on getting the next generations fed and educated as well.
"the human female is the limiting factor. This isn't a question to debate or ponder." It's so easy to jump into Eugenics when having a distanced and hypothetical conversation.. but that doesn't make the conclusions realistic. There are a lot of limiting factors besides the flowrate for gestation.
Jok: Whatever. News flash: there are not going to be "massive, forced sterilizations" so you can relax on this one.
That is quite true. That is probably the reason females are considered "inferior" in so many cultures. It's a justification for female infanticide, which was a common method of population control in the days before reliable birth control.
That is the reason I think it's possible that "men will rule again" if society collapses. We'll have the same sustainability issues our ancestors had, and I suspect we'll solve them in similar ways. It has nothing to do with whether women can farm or fight.
I don't buy it.
I think the devaluing of women in the modern age has been a function of our fear/loathing of 'nature' as we mastered Physics and Force projection, and created the forms of Imperialism and Colonialism that have crushed and exploited any 'resource' that was weak enough to be overtaken.
Can't source it at the moment.. I should remember to stay clear of these Population threads..
I don't see how that follows.
Women are often devalued in cultures under population pressure, even those that are not imperialist or colonialist. This can usually be seen in the sex ratios. If one gender is favored over the other, it shows up in the sex ratios.
Note that it doesn't have to be outright infanticide. It can just be favoritism. Feeding some children more than others, giving the boys better medical care than the girls, etc.
Personally, I wonder if this won't change, at least in the sense that women with access to weapons (ones that don't require male strength for maximum efficiency) will not accept it.
There is a parallel (in a mirror image way) - Japan in the age of the shoguns, where guns were banned to preserve the feudal order.
Personally, I don't think there is all that much 'native' difference in men or women being able to kill in their own interests. The difference is mainly one of socialization - and at this point, at least in societies like that of the U.S., younger women are being trained with the same techniques that younger men are, in terms of military experience. Not to mention video games, of course.
No predictions of the future, but I think the idea that women will return to the roles of centuries past is less likely than many here assume.
I don't think ability to kill really has anything to do with it. There have been cultures in the past where the women were the soldiers (or were at least as free to be warriors as men).
The difference is childbearing. As pointed out above, control of females is control of fertility.
I have known since the 60's (Zero Population Growth was all the rage) the mathematical certainities of the capacity of Gaia to feed its inhabitants. I see starvation daily in the papers and other news, and am supposed to become immune to it?
Maybe its like toilet odor - after a while I don't smell it anymore? Well I do - and it grieves me to no end to see the haves waste so much while the have nots suffer so much.
The paradigm of homosexuality is an enigma to me. My Christian beliefs on this run very contrary to my observations of the result of unbridled breeding. I have known since High school the fate of yeast in a petri dish.
I elected not to marry ( my stubbornness with the opposite sex convinced the ladies to agree ), but come tax time I dearly pay for not spawning off a bunch of deductions and tax credits. They don't see what I would spawn off ( experimentation with alternative refrigerants and ice bank technologies for thermal energy storage ) as worthy of tax credit, much less a stipend. I now depend completely on society to support me if I can no longer do so ( and I do not expect them to do much more than get me disposed of).
Yet, I wonder if even my God wants me because I feel more comfortable around my own sex. I am too much of a scientist/engineer to be much of a lover. My love is in my lab. Hell, I do not even make a good employee because I honor physical law before office politics.
No, this is not a solicitation for employment. I take pride in building resilient systems. I have systems in place that will sustain me for the rest of my life. However my output is highly constrained as this requires input. When other people need this output, hopefully I will still be able to deliver, but I am aging, and research takes time.
Steve
And that is not a coincidence. I think the point of the Christian view is pretty obvious. No sex unless you're married. You can only marry another Christian. And, in some flavors of Christianity, no birth control allowed.
Obviously, the point is to outnumber the heathens. Good for Christianity, not necessarily good for those who practice it, for the planet, or for anyone else.
you wrote:
Perhaps I should have prefaced my comment with something like "Western" societies. The point which I was attempting to get across was that our society (as embodied in our laws) has chosen to promote heterosexual marriage. Whether or not that is the best choice or remain so in future, that's what's evolved in the U.S. Maybe marriage with it's attendant problems of divorce and single parent child care, will become obsolete. Maybe we will go back to the days of feudal lords who had the "right" to deflower any maiden within his realm. Or, maybe a more hedonistic "Playboy" model of anything goes will become the norm (as if it hasn't already here in Redneckistan). I think we've seen quite a bit of what's been called "serial monogamy" in the cities of the U.S., and our national obsession with "being sexy" has produced TV shows like "Sex in the City" and "Desperate Housewives".
At the same time, there's the fact that health issues do exist, such as birth control and STD's, not least of which is HIV, which is still incurable. Recall the report a while back in which it was shown that something like half of black female teenagers have been infected with some STD. As the effectiveness of our available antibiotics continues to decline, STD's may again become a major scourge.
None of which changes the accepted notion that marriage is defined as a union between a man and a woman...
E. Swanson
Yeah, and not too long ago, it chose to promote slavery. Times change.
Not sure what the rest of your post has to do with the subject at hand. Are you saying the black female teenagers are getting STDs because of gay marriage?
The statistics for white and hispanic females was about 20% of the 14 to 19 year old age group. Considerably less that that 50% for blacks. My point was that those who get those diseases do so by being in a chain from older to younger individuals. Children don't have STDs, as near as I can tell, but acquire them from their sex partners. One reason for monogamous relations is to stop the spread of STDs. If one expects a future of less medical care and the inability to provide replacement antibiotics as the present ones are defeated by evolutionary changes in the diseases, then one might also expect to see STD epidemics and a return to a society with strict monogamous relationships.
AIDS/HIV is a heterosexual disease, although it first appeared in the gay community because of their tendency to have frequent sex with different partners. I think it was a gross mistake to allow the gay community to prevent the reporting of AIDS cases to some central authority for tracking the disease. That failure made the epidemic much worse. In some African nations, the percentage of young mothers who are HIV positive when they present at hospital for child delivery is quite high, approaching 40%. That's been said to be the result of infidelity by the male partners after marriage.
Maybe one way to address the disease problem is to turn the process of coupling into a more formal, legal arrangement. Instead of applying for a license to have sex, why not require that both parties sign a standard "partnership contract", which would include breakup arrangements. Such an agreement would remove much of the acrimony of divorce. Part of the contract process would be the requirement for testing for all STDs, including HIV, before the contract could be signed. Those who signed the contract would be eligible for some minimum set of benefits which have been typically given just to heterosexual couples. But, don't call it a "marriage contract" and don't call the resulting arrangement a "marriage" if it is not heterosexual. You gotta leave something for the Church(s) to worry about.
E. Swanson
Honestly, I don't see what this has to do with the topic. If monogamy is desirable, then marriage is desirable. For everyone, gay or straight.
I really have a gripe with dumb ass medical statistics in the media - which are used as scare tactics in many cases. I am not inclined to have a lengthy debate on HPV, but would recommend being cautious about believing the marketing hype of things such as the HPV vaccine.
As a single parent, I can tell you that a lot of the "frequent failure" of children from single parent households has to do with the discrimination we face on many levels - the subsidizing of married households and penalizing of ours in the tax laws being a major force.
My two-person household with a birth certificate between us pays more in taxes than a two-person household at the same income level but with a marriage certificate between them. No freakin' wonder it has been such a struggle.
And now that my child is a young adult, I can no longer insure him. However, if he was my domestic partner or the child of my domestic partner - no problem.
Too bad single parents are so busy doing the work of two parents (but without the subsidies) that they have no time for grass-roots lobbying for their benefit.
Oh come on Black Dog, that wasn't her point.
If you're color-blind, "red" does mean very nearly the same thing as "green".
If "marriage" means a chosen union between unrelated people, then there's nothing wrong with people of the same sex getting married.
But in all practicality, "marriage" doesn't even mean that. Like Doug Stanhope suggests, it's more like signing a contract guaranteeing that you'll be lucky forever, and if you're not, the other party has the right to half your stuff.
If you need a legal document (or a diamond) to prove you love someone, your relationship is a sham from the get-go.
If penalty of law is needed to prevent lovers from fighting or separating, there is something deficient in the system as a whole.
If you think all couples can only be exclusively bonded for life, you're insane.
Gay marriage should be forbidden, and so should straight marriage. Marriage should not be state-sanctioned.
Disagree. Marriage really isn't about love. It's an economic contract, and I think it still has a place.
It's not to provide a good environment for children. If that were the case, marriage would not be allowed between people too old to have kids, or for people who were infertile or didn't want kids. And I guess marriages would be dissolved after the kids were grown and out of the house.
But there are a lot of protections that the institution of marriage gives families (whether there are kids or not). We've all heard the horror stories. A friend of mine was with her partner for 30 years. He raised her daughter like she was his own, though he never adopted her legally. Then he had a stroke, and ended up in a nursing home. His family declared him mentally incompetent, and cut my friend and her daughter off, not even allowing them to visit him. They lost his financial contribution, and his family removed them from his health insurance. They were kicked out of their home (which was in his name). The daughter had to drop out of college, because he had been paying her tuition, and his family stopped that once they got control of his finances.
That is not what he would have wanted, and it wouldn't have happened if they had married. Yes, it's possible to set up various legal instruments that provide about the same protections as marriage, but it's a pain, and you may end up in a long court battle if the family objects. That's much less likely if you're married.
And one perhaps overlooked benefit of marriage: divorce. If you're married, there's also an established path to dissolving the union.
My gay friends laugh and agree with me that the *ONLY* negative to gay marriage will be a new syndicated TV series "Gay Divorce Court".
One entertainment contribution that our society could do without :-P
Best Hopes for Gay, and Straight, Marriage,
Alan
Divorce is an established path, and a benefit? That you say this implies you've never been around one in progress.
I would envy you if that were so.
The horror story you cite speaks more to the inherent social disconnection threaded through society than to proposed benefits of the back-end, piecemeal solution provided through police, lawyers, courts, and governments of that which existed before there ever were police, lawyers, courts, and governments.
But maybe you fundamentally do understand, as you state that similar problems are "less likely" if you're married, admitting it's a risk, or a gamble.
Which makes the joke about contractually agreeing to be lucky an equally valid comparison.
"but that's the way the word has been defined for centuries"
Actually, any fair history of marriage in the West would acknowledge that the word has been repeatedly redefined in legal terms in response to changes in social behavior - one thinks of the "married womens' property acts" in the 19th century that redefined the legal definition of marriage so that women could own property despite their status as married females or Loving v. Virginia that redefined the legal definition of marriage to recognize inter-racial unions. You want to privilege a definition of marriage you like (relying on gender identity of the partners) based on some questionable assertions and assumptions but haven't really offered why your definition of marriage should be immutable when most other definitions have been susceptible to change.
Why the "failure of children from single parent households" should be evidence in an argument against gay couples forming families with children is beyond me.
As one the gay rights advocates you refer to I'd say all I'm looking for is the same range of legal rights, privileges and economic benefits my straight siblings enjoy. Marriage has ceased to be a matter of legal status and is now simply a matter of contract - an associational arrangement based on volition. Allowing some members of society access to the benefits of such an arrangement, but not others is simply irrational and unjust. To be fair - your suggestion that marriage be redefined as a purely private arrangement not subject to state scrutiny would be rational and just by my standards.
You Rock Pudentilla
I presume you have forgotten our efforts to get Barry Commoner elected as the Citizens Party candidate back in 1980.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_Party_(United_States)
His main issue was the energy crisis with environmental issues also emphasized. The effort didn't get very far and in 1984, the "radical feminist” took it over and it died. However, the legal challenges which were pursued by the Citizens Party made it possible for Ross Perot to later build his one-man party.
E. Swanson
Environmentalists are getting smarter about how to pitch their message. This morning, I saw a pretty good TV slot:
Man descends into basement and sees a prominent environmentalist (David Suzuki) standing in front of an old refrigerator.
Man: "David Suzuki, what are you doing here?".
Suzuki: "Bob, running old appliances like this is hurting the environment".
Man: "But David, I'm still using this fridge" - opens door to show four bottles of beer inside.
Suzuki: "Did you know that running this fridge is costing you $150 in electricity every year?"
Man: "GEE, THAT'S A LOT OF BEER!!!"
The final scene show the man running around the house turning everything off, including the kids' Nintendo and his wife's hair dryer.
People get the message once it is explained properly :)