<A Visit to the New Choren BTL PlantThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: May 7, 2008>
<The Bullroarer - Tuesday 6th May 2008TOD: Australia/New ZealandThe Bullroarer - Thursday 8th May 2008>

168 comments on $100 a barrel: Going, Going....

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

DaveMart on May 6, 2008 - 6:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Interesting work.
Is it possible to share the actual figures on the assumptions you have made, especially the rate of renewables substitution?

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
phoenix on May 6, 2008 - 10:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The substitution rate is not as simple as a fixed dependancy on oil price. Unfortunately it also has a significant time lag. I have tried to model this time lag.

In terms of real numbers I have a total (renewables plus substitutes) of 6.3 Mbpd by 2020.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
DaveMart on May 6, 2008 - 10:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks for the reply.
I understand that you are in a somewhat delicate position being employed within the industry, but I wonder if it would be possible to post the spreadsheet showing all figures and assumptions?
Anonymity would still cast it's kindly cloak!

Anyway, many thanks for what you have so far shared and the valuable insights it gives.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.