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Giddaye, Clifford (I see your name pop up a bit around the place).
I'm one of those Average Joe / Average IQ blokes that stumbled across the notion of PO sometime last year (curse that film, "A Crude Awakening"!). As a father of three, all I care about is my kids future, so have been taking an interest in sites like TOD to try and get some sort of handle of where the world is headed.
While I agree fuel prices could be seen as an indicator the PO notion is happening, I still find it difficult to accept for very simple reasons: The MS papers, radio, TV stations don't acknowledge it; very, very few of my friends, family or colleagues had ever heard of it (P. Coyle? Who's that? was one response); my mechanic doesn't believe it; and the owner of the local petrol station just rolls his eyes and says, "Nah, there's plenty of it left".
So I guess I'll just move on, business as usual and all that, wish all you TODsters the best and get back to sleeping properly at night. If nothing else, your stories have been great reading!
Regards, Matthew Blain (Melbourne, Aus)
Hi, Joe Average.
It's good to remember that there is always a lag between the discovery of new knowledge and when it becomes generally known.
As the price of oil continues its rise and if you should choose to come back to visit, you'll be welcome.
-Andre'
Matthew,
I recently went to a seminar where Richard Neville (hippy futurist)spoke about listening to the weak signals to really get the full picture. MSM does report on Peak Oil but they report the symptoms rather than the cause. You just need to learn how to read it. Drumbeat and the Bullroarer are fantastic summaries but theere is a motza of other stuff out there, which appears completely unrelated to oil, but if you follow the threads will lead back to oil.
At some point someone in a position of power is going to crack and say "What the hell is going on with oil. Don't keep feeding me the bullshit, I want to know what the deal is with $300 barrel oil. Why is it that high? it didn't just happen by itself. There must be a root cause" Then the MSM will be all over it and if if you have not prepared yourself by then, it will be too late. Options for the masses to make better living arrangements will rapidly close.
Journey Well.
Matthew Blain,
Well, First off I've got to say 3 things.
1. Your mechanic and petrol station are not a reliable source for economics or petroleum geology.
2. The average person doesn't give a shit or care, on average.
3. It has been all over the mainstream media if you've paid attention, but the MSM only puts entertaining like paris hilton on the front cover.
4. Seriously, if you wanted advice about your children would you listen to the MSM, your colleagues, the owner of the local petrol station owner or your mechanic, do some research and figure it out for yourself mate?
Let me ask you this?
Why would Bill Clinton, Warren Buffet, T Boone Pickens, Matthew Simmons, The CEO of Conoco-phillips, the Former VP of Saudi Aramco Sadad Al-Husenni, The VP of Lukoil Fedun, The President of Total, The CEO of Shell and 10 Congressmen, Several Mayors and cities and volumes of respected petroleum engineers, geophysicist and petroleum geologist all be concerned about peak oil while you shouldn't? Most people don't take the time to do the research but that's fine because their loss can be my gain. Good luck though
Swords,
Just finished watching "I Am Legend" with the wife (why'd it have to turn into a zombie movie?!) and thought I'd check in one last time before bed. It occured to me, might the bleakness of the first half of the movie be an exagerated expression of what life might be like after a few more decades of business as usual?
And that's my point. To me, an Average Joe with limited sources such as yourselves to converse with (further - and not to offend - it doesn't help that I don't know any of you from a bar of soap, much less all the respected names you mention) and though I completely understand Mother Nature only produced so much of the stuff, the concept of Peak Oil doesn't FEEL REAL to me. I'm not saying PO is nonsense - indeed, a tipping point makes perfect sense - it's just that at this point in time I find it difficult to accept: THAT LIFE AS WE KNOW IT MIGHT BE COMING TO AN END?!
It almost feels like an idea for a movie, a good yarn... Actually, as it stands, a conversation killer!
Swords, I AM concerned (about all sorts of things) and HAVE been trying to figure it out, which is why I've been visiting here these past months, as well as e-mailing local media figures (the sensible sounding ones that is, though not much return there. Even tried someone at ASPO - forget who - without answer). The trouble is I'm no rocket-scientist (clearly!), or a person of power or influence, or someone "in the know" and as far as the research goes, most of what you guys write about goes way over my head.
But even as I see oil hit $122 a barrel, while record car sales continue in this Land Down Under, I think what can I do about it anyway? Get smarter? How's that going to help? So FOR THE MOMENT, as I look out for the front-cover headline somewhere above the picture of Britney Spears, "World Running Out Of Affordable Oil", all I can hope is that you guys (and gals) are missing something.
But if you're right, at least I won't be surprised.
Cheers, Matt B
For the record, I take the education of my kids very seriously. The eldest (school captain last year) is at the pointy end of her class in an accelerated learning program - also plays a great game of tennis; and her little brother is hot on her heals. Such opportunities kids have these days. I hope they continue.
Matt,
I have three kids too and they all have great talents. But I don't sit around and passively hope anything for them. I take them out gardening. I teach them how to read whats happening around them to give them a bit of rat cunning. I teach them how to cook and how to use google to suck up as much knowledge as they can,just in case. I've adopted the no regrets appraoch to life. I don't teach my kids to be afraid of the future, I am teaching them how to be prepared for wahtever comes down at them.
You sound like you're just a little too attached to your comfy middle class lifestyle and not quite ready to accept the possibility that it all might go sideways any time soon.
As Phoenix says in his opening paragraph, all of us have gonne through a moment of shocked disbelief as we have absorbed Peak Oil and its potential ramifications. The truth is none of us really know what the future holds. By exploring the scenarios however you can learn a little bit each day and start to mitigate bit by bit.
I'm sure your kids are great tennis players, and I'm sure you're proud of them. BUt you need to ask yourself this question: If TSHTF have I done enough to give them the necessary skills to survive and prosper in a world where the oil ration is going to be severely curtailed?
And I don't buy your Joe Average excuse either. You seem like a pretty articulate guy to me. I suggest you go into Dymocks and buy The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler. Read it, absorb it. Take a week off work and recover, the come back and join us here on The Oil Drum for counselling and support.
OK Termoil, you've convinced me to keep the door open. But if it's OK, I'll still try and get some answers from local personalities - finance talking-heads, editors of motor magazines, presidents of car associations and the like (perhaps I'll even write to a few ministers, not that I'd hold much hope - the Australian Government can't even make a decision whether to ban plastic shopping bags or not!).
For the record, I read David Strahan's "The Last Oil Shock" late last year, which pretty well supported everything I saw in that film. Probably need to read it again along with your book suggestion. Also read Richard Dawkins', "The God Delusion" recently... Who's right and who's wrong about such things?
At the end of the day, it's still trusted faces and headlines that will convince me.
Thanks for replying, Matt B
PS. Don't Average Joes exist in "Middle Class"? That is, Average / Middle? I guess I am pretty handy with a trowel and hammer!
You read books. That alone puts you way past the "äverage" joe.
In my area, Northwest US, people fall into two categories when you talk to them about PO: those who have never heard of it and think you're a kook; and, those who have heard of it, don't believe it, and think you're a kook. Perhaps a lot more people would believe we have a PO problem if the powers that be in GOVERNMENT (not industry --> "gougers" -- and not Peak Oil Theorists --> kooks) would put their PR fears aside and make an unequivocal statement that PO is here and we have to get serious about the problem. Of course, fat chance of that happening...
In the meantime, they are merrily buying SUVs and giant pickups -- and getting great deals!