I thought it important to strike whilst the iron was hot, and so posted to the blog, even though I would have preferred that those better qualified had got in - I hope I have presented the case with reasonable competence!
Here is what I said:

OIL IS NOT GOING TO GET CHEAP AGAIN, AND OIL SUPPLIES ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS THEY WILL GET
This rise is not due primarily to speculation or political factors or even drilling restrictions, but new fields are getting more and more difficult to find, are smaller and cost more to develop.

The statements of massive reserves that can be produced in most oil producing countries is nonsense - the state run bodies in places like Saudi Arabia had every incentive to overstate reserves, as quotas were based on them.
Although they have pumped billions of barrels, remaining reserves remain exactly the same as they were according to their (unaudited) figures!
What a coincidence!
Give or take, production is about as high as it will get:
http://www.energybulletin.net/17009.html
Demand is going up all the time, with major new consumers like China and India wanting ever more oil.
Demand always balances supply.
Result? Ever rising prices.
PRICE RISES WILL BE GEOMETRIC
When supply is static, the only way to balance things out is by demand destruction.
The poorest people in the world have already been forced out.
Driving out the next tier up will be tougher - it is people like those in America who need to drive a long way to work, and are relatively poorer than some others.
But supply and demand will balance, so if $200/barrel oil does not do it, then it will go to $400/barrel:
http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3947#more

It gets worse, as in fact as in the North sea or Mexico when supplies have peaked, they drop rapidly - Russia is on the verge of this, as they have recently half-admitted.
Oil exporters also tend to keep it cheap in their own land, leading to rocketing demand - Saudi Arabian demand is going through the roof.

So if $800/barrel oil is what it takes to knock out the next level of demand, that is what will happen, to put the middle classes on the bus.

Here's what I posted:

Oil production has been essentially flat since 2005, and that has resulted in the price of oil doubling in the last year. Since we are at or near the ultimate peak of world oil production, the amount available will soon begin an irreversible decline. When it does, the price spike will make the current rate of increase look quite mild. These are the good old days.

Mark Folsom

Here's what I submitted to the blog:

"The rate of oil production, approximately 85 million barrels a day (bbl/d) in total liquids and 74 million bbl/d in crude and condensate, has remained approximately flat since about 2005. Increasing oil demand globally, perhaps largely driven by the rapid growth of the economies of China and India in a world with already extant oil-intensive economies such as exist in North America and Europe (for example), has put intense pressure on an apparently limited supply of crude. Prices have risen dramatically. Indeed, price per barrel now appears to be doubling every 12-18 months.

"Given the reality that new discoveries are trailing production by at least three barrels per every one produced, and the advanced 'age' of many producing oil fields, especially the major finds such as Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, world oil production is likely to begin to decline. Exports from oil-producing countries will probably decline even faster than actual production decline, as internal oil consumption increases due to the expenditure of all the wealth obtained by the exporting country in a market of high oil prices. As a result, oil prices are set to climb even faster in the future. Imagine a world where oil prices double perhaps every 3 to 6 months.

"Among a huge list of geopolitical implications that could be (and are being) triggered by a rapid escalation in oil prices, one thing seems clear: Such a fast climb in the price of oil, the lifeblood of the world's economies, probably will result in the end of mass consumerism, and all the cold, hard realities that go along with such a dramatic economic rearrangement."

-best,

Wolf

Here's a sample of a comment:

Justus Kilian
[...]
During the last month cnn reported on two australians that developed a generator the doesn’t use any fuel. Why are we not hearing more about that? Because the global elite needs the $200 a barrel oil scam to destroy the middel class, so that its easier to promote global government as our “saviour”.