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238 comments on DrumBeat: May 9, 2008
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238 comments on DrumBeat: May 9, 2008
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They had a piece on the morning news on TV about how gas prices might hit 7$/gallon by the end of the year. Apparently in reaction to the Goldman Sachs thing that came out earlier about 200$/bbl oil. And then they did the obligatory interviews with folks at the gas station to get their reactions, which were quite predictable.
Note that the story on TV said "by the end of the year" - my recollection is that Goldman Sachs said that it could be in a couple of years...
At $125 it doesn't matter.
Seen everything that the FedRes has been trying to cover up since
Summer 2005?
Housing, food, credit cards, stuck with gas guzzlers?
Add $2 the gallon on top of that.
Kaiser Family Foundation Poll:
The poll listed gas prices as the number one economic concern for people living below the median household income in the U.S.
Problems Experienced as a Result of Changes in the Economy,
by Household Income
Percent saying each was a “serious problem”
Problems paying for gas:
<$30k, 63%
$30-$75k, 43%
>$75k, 27%
If you ask me, the number one use of George Bush's stimulus check for people living at or below the median is going to be filling the gas tank. The stimulus check will fill up people's gas tanks through the summer, with the caveat that it will also drive up gas prices even further.
The stimulus check was a brilliant plan to promote summer driving and increase the trade deficit.
"If you ask me, the number one use of George Bush's stimulus check for people living at or below the median is going to be filling the gas tank."
A poll just done (can't source it off hand, saying exactly that).
All utility bills. Which gives exactly zero stimulus.
Casaubon’s Book
Sharon Astyk’s Ruminations on an Ambiguous Future. ... Looking at my 2K oil bill, I can forsee what is going to happen to large numbers of my neighbors ...
sharonastyk.com/
It is amazing. George Bush has about a 20% approval rating. But it is "his" check that is going out. I thought that in about 3rd grade I learned that Congress (currently democrat controlled in both houses) had to pass any bill for the president to sign. Details are so troublesome.
We need to stop conforming and calling the stimulus check. This just validates it. Let's call it what it is: The Congressional Incumbent Protection Act.
I can't claim credit for that, I heard it somewhere (talk radio I think).
I call it HUSH MONEY.
That guy had a 10% approval rating when he stolled the chair. How'ed he gain so much?
And I live in the most corrupt state in the union (OH) [with pride], hell, we'd of laughed that rookie right on outa here. Guyz a f*cking ameture, or armeture, or whatever. My spell checker's taking a dip, sorry folks. As vice-president for the last 8 years, I'm not impressed. President Darth shoulda kicked his ass out long time ago.
F*ckin" *ssholes. Eeerrrggghhhh!!!
Perhaps that meme is what is needed to boost small car sales by more than the rather pathetic 18.9% recently reported. And "other adjustments".
Best Hopes for Both Smaller and Fewer Cars,
Alan
I'm hoping all of this leads to more motorcycle buddies to ride alongside when I'm going places on my motorcycle instead of my car. :)
I got my first motorcycle this year, at age 55. A 225cc Yamaha. Never been on one before. I can't wait till the speed limits get lowered. Another motive for conservation: fear.
I'm in about the same situation (55, never ridden before). I'm thinking about getting an electric motorcycle and completely cutting off from oil. I haven't done anything yet though.
I decided to learn on something I didn't mind crashing (which has happened). Used small motorcycles are trivially cheap compared to anything electric - and their range is much better (and can easily be extended by strapping on an extra cannister). I know the "purity" feeling - but I decided I needed to get started one way or another before I got any older. I forced myself to learn by signing up for a MSF class. I just wish the cars wouldn't tailgate while I'm still getting used to getting bashed around by wind at 40 mph.
I drive about 5-15 miles a day within a 5-mile radius of my home and get tailgated most days by some big SUV. That tells me a very large percentage of people tailgate out of habit and that would scare the crap out of me were I on a motorcycle.
You should see the file on my computer for gas prices that SUV drivers will soon face, for instance, at $4.00/gallon it would cost them $120 to fill up, at $5.75 or $200/bbl oil, it would cost them $175.50. I don't think that SUV's will be on the road much longer.
Wish that were true. In actual fact if your job is secure or somehow Fed government funded (e.g. medical related, or aid worker in NOLA or ...) and you live close enough to work that $7/gallon will not be enough. The folks who put on a lot of miles, or are facing income pressures will be the first to fold and get something smaller.
Driving every SUV and pick-up off the road could take 10 years. Still a lot of time to get hit by one.
Given a large SUV with a tank of 30 gallons, a fillup would be $210 at $7 per gallon. If one lives in the suburbs and fills up every two weeks, thats $420 per month. Double that if one lives in a busy metro like northern Virginia or Los Angeles which has atrocious traffic. Furthermore, many of these SUVs were purchased when gas was around $2.50 a gallon, meaning that the mortgages and finances of these people are not prepared for the price rises that are coming. In addition, $7 per gallon would force us further down into the permanent recession that comes with peak oil and that would likely mean job losses for many people. Also I can foresee huge federal penalties being assessed against SUV drivers when gas prices rise above $7 per gallon due to the ignorant public looking for a scapegoat after an attack on the oil industry didn't make prices go down.
What, you mean incessantly talking about how much Exxon made won't bring prices down? Shucks!
Hi Berkely and Shargash,
Now you have me worried about you!
Are bicycles safer, maybe? Especially once the dedicated lanes are installed?
http://local.theoildrum.com/node/3061
There's a lot of debate about this. The problem with bike lanes is that then there is this expectation that bikes not use normal traffic lanes. For example, to make a left-hand turn, you need to come out of the bike lane and get in the left-hand turn lane.
Another problem is that frequently right-turn lanes are to the left of the bike lane, so if you want to go straight on the bike lane, you have people trying to turn right in front of you.
Thus on many streets bicyclists prefer to take the lane. Get into the turn lane if you are turning, otherwise get into the thru lane. Otherwise you get sideswiped by a driver who doesn't see you in their mirror or some such.
Another point I can make here. People are worried about driving smaller vehicles (scooters, bicycles, motorcycles) - I guess mainly they are worried that people with big SUVs will run them off the road or something. My experience on a bicycle is that it is really all in your mind - the reality is nowhere nearly as bad as you think. Even when I drive my Jetta on the highway, if I take the right hand lane and drive the speed limit, I never feel threatened at all. Yet lots of people I know locally insist that they have to speed or otherwise someone run them over, but in reality they only intimidate you if you let them.
Hi ericy,
Thanks. I didn't realize it was quite this complicated. Perhaps in urban settings some combination of the "slow" dedicated lane and regular use of roads for faster cyclists might be the best combination. Or, what's your conclusion?
My original question was based on my personal observations. From my pool of acquaintances/friends, every commuter I've known who rode a motorcycle or motor scooter (Note: past tense) has had a collision, w. serious injuries. Whereas only one cyclist I know has. Though I do know of a cyclist on a road trip from Austin to Brownsville, TX, who was deliberately "scared off the road", i.e., attempted sideswipe by an SUV. A hopefully rare anecdote.
Bicycle boxes seem a good solution to the turning problem. They are used a lot in Cambridge, England, and seemed to work well in my experience when I was last there:
http://www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/bicyclespedestrians/tools/bicycleBox/inde...
It looks interesting - I would want to see how it works in practice.
Some people really like bike lanes. Along major arterials, it probably works better - places where the traffic volume or the traffic speed is high enough that it gets harder for a bicycle to take the lane. As you say, the box may help in such situations..
Take an AARP driving course. Your vision and reflexes are about half of what they were when you were 18. So, at 55, I would say (personnal opinion only) that it is NOT the time to switch to a motorcycle.
In my garage is a 300cc Honda scooter that does 90mpg and 95mph ( though probably not at the same time ), a 125cc Honda scooter ( 110 mpg and 65 mph ) and a folding electric bike that sits at 15mph with no pedalling for 20 miles. Outside is a rarely used 1600cc car.
I used to have a 1300cc bike, a 2500cc V6 and the 1600cc ... bikes rule as far as I can see. No traffic queues and almost free to run.
It will be a terrible day when I can't afford the 6 gallons a month for commuting. The rest is pure discretion and whilst I have a serious nett worth I still choose not to waste it.
Thinking of chickens ... do Bassetts eat chickens ?
Size of Market for Motor Scooters
The motor scooter market is the fastest growing motorcycle segment in the U.S.
From Aug 2005.
Would be interesting to know how many scooters/motorcycles the auto industry could produce yearly under mandate/subsidy.
"The motor scooter market is the fastest growing motorcycle segment in the U.S."
Do they come with extra-wide seats and beefy suspension ? I would be interested to know the cultural differences between, say, southern Italy/Spain and the sunnier climes of the USA. One chooses scooters en-masse the other not.
Is it down to aspiration ? Safety ? Cheap petrol ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PmuHWPZSkY
I choose a motorcycle over a scooter for the many 4WD roads here in southern Colorado. No reason to cut yourself off from the majority of roads. A dual-sport motorcycle is a high-clearance SUV with 80mpg. A scooter is a low-clearance Prius with 120mpg.
I gave up on the car culture 3 years ago. I bought a Piaggio BV500, yes a 500 CC scooter. I weight 300 lbs and am 6'4" tall. I have no problems using this as my main commuting source. If I need a car I use ZIP Car. I used to scoot around DC and now I scoot around San Francisco. Even with the hills the bike has plenty of power and has a top speed of 100 MPH. I have been on the 101 and 280 with no problems.
Once I did the math it made no sense to own a car when I can rent a car by the hour and not have to pay gas or insurance. Plus I have lots of great cars to choose from. ZIP Car is an awesome service. If you live in a large metropolitan area chances are there are ZIP Cars near you or soon will be.
Along this line of thinking...the Scout signs (city electronic message boards) around the Kansas City Metro area having been displaying many messages like "Watch out for motorcycles", "This week is Motorcycle Awareness Week", and "Share the road with motorcycles".
This started happening about a month ago and never noticed them saying that before.
Perhaps KC city officials are expecting more motorcycle riders than usual this spring and summer.
Interesting. I'd love to be riding a motorcycle in KC, but the drivers here are so clueless I feel like I'd be taking my life in my hands...
I ride a motorcycle all over the country and rarely have any issues with other vehicles. In fact, most cars seem to give me extra room.
This week was the first time I saw those messages also. But, Kansas has been on a motorcycle awareness campaign for at least a couple of years. It was a big deal when I got my license renewed last year (posters at DMV and questions on the test).
Durandal - Where do you live?
i have bought a basic honda rebel and have been teaching myself to ride it.
i have to say it's interesting experience.
I'm tellin' ya, go have a look at the Japanese Kei vehicles, that's where we are heading. 660 cc (most turbo charged) and can fulfill most of what we do for every day personal transportation.
Unfortunately, the U.S. can't import anything less than 25 years old, so it is impracticable. In Canada the limit is 15 years and we can buy some very good condition used imported cars. 4 wd, funky stereos, what more do you need?
And if you want to reply about the safety with regards to the heavier passenger vehicles out there, don't. I will rip your head off!