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Really, who gives a flying monkey about all liquids? Now, if all liquids was broken down as BOE equivalents, you might have my attention. If it was broken down into just what all those strange types of "oil" can actually be USED for, thus UBOE (Useful Barrels of Oil Equivalent), I'd lap them stats right up!
As it is, I could give a damn about all liquids. People (The Vested Interests?) use all liquids to hide the problem of crude production. So... what is the C+C data, what with Russian production still falling, eh?
Cheers
The new February peak, trumping the old Jan peak, is C & C data.
I remember this now:
"The Record Falls - January 2008 is the New World Record for Crude Oil (plus Condensate) Production
Posted by Nate Hagens on April 11, 2008 - 9:44am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: bumpy plateau, crude and condensate, eia, global production, peak [list all tags]
The EIA’s newest International Petroleum Monthly shows World C+C production for January was 74,466,000 barrels per day, eclipsing the heretofore peak of May 2005 by 168,000 barrels per day. (thanks to Ron Patterson for the heads up and to Khebab for the quick graphics)."
My comments buried in this were, and Wisdom from Pakistan corrected me (thanx again), that 168 000 is .02% of 74 000 000.
Accuracy of that kind is not possible.
that would be 0.2% actually
Thanx. I knew I was wrong. I did the same thing earlier.
Close math, eh? ;}
In addition to this number being insignificant, Asebius' asertion is almost certainly incorrect given their was a discussion about the previous "new peak" in which it was determined the C+C included production for tar sands.
Why would that have magically changed? If it has, let us know.
Cheers
Fantastic! New record high in production, and new record high in prices! Can't wait to see the prices when we really hit the peak!
ej
The high prices that started late last year flushed out a little spare capacity. The big question is: is the increase sustainable?
Russia is down every month this year. OPEC was down 350,000 barrels in April. I think we have a tentative answer. The uptick in production that started around November likely ended in March and is now on the way down. I don't think it is any coincidence that the last big run-up in oil prices coincides with the OPEC decline. And don't forget the ELM. Small upticks in production won't mean there's any more oil available for consuming countries to buy.
Nigeria and Iraq have not fully developed their oil fields.
It appears that with recent offshore discoveries in Ghana that they may have multi-billion barrel potential. More oil fields were being discovered in Angola. Namibia has not been fully explored.
Canada has hundreds of years worth of reserves at current rates of production.
Venezuela has a vast heavy oil frontier and large conventional natural gas reserves near the Trinidad border.
In time more nations will enter the decline phase and the declines will eventually show up as declining world production in spite of new frontier oil deposits and increasing production elsewhere.
There are challenges for peoples with limited resources to limit their birth rates and increase productivity in order for all things to become possible.
So what? Exports are still down 1.5m barrels from their peak in Dec 2005. True, they are up 400k barrels for Q1 this year agaisnt the 2007 average.
Lets see them top the Dec 2005 number.
These piddling changes in overall production may be statistical aberations either way. 1.5m is not an aberation.
I am aware of the Export Land Model. Oil exporting nations were experiencing rising family incomes and more cars were being purchased taking away from a nation's ability to export oil. That was known before the ELM model was published. Lowering of exports available for sea transport has contributed to the rise in oil prices. There is also a problem with some nations subsidizing gas prices as with Venezuela, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. The consumers were not encouraged to reduce gasoline consumption as gas prices remained the same. In China there was a price cap on gasoline. The last I read it was only about $2.90 a gallon. The Chinese were able to afford more gasoline consumption with their rising incomes. Canada has a five billion dollar trade surplus compared to the United States' massive trade deficits. Part of the reason was attributed to the fact that Canada exported oil and natural gas.
Rising oil prices may cause fuel conservation measures in homes and industry.
Hundreds of acres of soybean fields production (biodiesel) might be needed to displace a one barrel/day oil flow. There is not enough energy in biomass. Ethanol production should not be subsidized or mandatory, and only allowed when the price of ethanol is lower than the price of gasoline with realization that ethanol only gets 80% of the fuel efficiency of gasoline and it was rusting gas tanks. The EROIE of ethanol was very low according to a Cornell study so as to make it a culprit in consuming excessive natural gas, diesel burned in farm tractors, and natural gas based nitrogen fertilizer. Fertilizer prices have increased at a double digit rate.
More hydroelectric projects in Alaska might support electric based industry there. Nitrogen fertilizer may be made from electricity although natural gas is currently being used in most cases. Some of the first aluminum production in the world was produced near the Niagra Falls hydroelectric facilities. In lieu of large scale nuclear or hydroelectric power generation projects the price of electricity might rise as coal demand was rising with mine, rail, and port facilities limited.