The Oil Drum

You're underestimating emissions due to coal-fired electricity generation. It's not 1kg CO_2e/kWhr, more like 1.3 kg CO_2e/kWhr.

According to the National Greenhouse Office,

Estimated emissions from stationary energy combustion
were 279.4 Mt CO2-e in 2005, equal to 50.0% of net national
emissions.

But we have to consider not simply the emissions compared to electricity generated, but emissions compared to electricity actually reaching the lines above the tracks. If for example a power station emits 1,000kg of CO_2e while producing 1,000kWh, but 250kWh are used by the power station, lost in transmission and so on, so that only 750kWh reaches the electric train, then we must in all fairness look at the total emissions of 1,000kg CO_2e compared to the useful energy of 750kWh. So instead of 1kg CO_2e/kWh we get 1.33CO_2e/kWh.

The UIC, drawing on printed sources, says,

In 2006 Australia's power stations produced 255 billion kilowatt hours (TWh) of electricity (243 TWh public supply + 12 TWh for non-grid autoproducers), 65% more than the 1990 level and growing at 3.3% pa.

Of this gross amount, about 18 TWh is used by the power stations themselves, leaving 237 TWh actually sent out (net production). Then about 17 TWh is lost or used in transmission and 9-10 more in energy sector consumption, leaving 210 TWh for final consumption - or 187 TWh apart from aluminium exports.(Vencorp suggest that typically net TWh are about 10% less than gross TWh, with transmission and distribution losses often being 10%.)

So we get that of all electricity generated, 83.3% goes on to be actually used for some end purpose. But we can look at more raw numbers if you prefer. To be generous to electricity and its emissions, we can compare 2006 generation with 2005 emissions.

So we have 279.4Mt CO_2e emissions for 210 billion kWh useful electricity, and thus 279.4/210 = 1.33 kg CO_2e/kWh. That's for all electricity sources - coal's obviously higher, wind turbines obviously less.

So going on your figures of 200Wh/km, electric cars hose electricity comes from our current mostly-coal generation mix will have effective emissions of 0.2*1.33*100 = 26.6kg CO_2e/100km. There is thus no greenhouse emissions advantage in electrifying transport if the electricity generation remains in its current high fossil fuel mix.

The other thing to consider is that electric vehicles generally require more energy - and thus usually more emissions - to produce than internal combustion vehicles.

[original source: Institute for Life Cycle Environmental Analysis, site apparently now defunct, however the study was led by this guy at Seikei University]

I don't know of any studies of complete life-cycle analysis of electric vs diesel or other trains, but I don't see why they'd be that different to electric vs petrol etc automobiles. A train's diesel or electric engine is not magically different from a car's. So I'd expect to see the same results: that electric vehicles have more emissions than fossil fuel driven vehicles in manufacture, but that emissions during use depend on how you get the electricity.

Basically, it's as I said: if you get your electricity from fossil fuels, it makes not much difference to total emissions whether the fossil fuels are burned in a power station or on the vehicle. But if you get your electricity from renewables then electric's the clear winner overall.

Thus, it's not enough to electrify transport, we need to reduce emissions due to electricity generation. Or else we're just shuffling the pollution to a different spot, overall it's pretty much the same.