Kudos for a fantastic analysis.

Tony: I'd recommend talking to a full service commodities broker for advice on this--if you tell them how much money you want to invest, how much risk you're willing to accept, and where you think oil prices will be at X date in the future with what degree of confidence, they should be able to provide a good buy recommendation. In general, oil futures control 1000 barrels of oil, and require a margin (how much money you need to put up) of about $9000. Then, for every dollar it goes up (assuming you're long) you get $1000 deposited in your margin account at the end of the day, and every dollar it goes down you have to put $1000 into your margin account (if it falls below the maintenance requirement--about $7000). So, the problem with futures is that you can lose more than you put up in the first place. Options, on the other hand, can never lose more money than you paid to buy them (assuming you're the option holder, not the seller). So, for example, if you bought a December 2010 call option with a strike price of $150 for $3,000, and oil went to $200/barrel by the expiration date, then your option would be worth $50,000 at the expiration date. If oil was still at $130/barrel at the expiration date, your option would expire worthless. Generally you won't take delivery--you'll sell the option (or future) prior to that point. That's a very bare-bones, simplified explanation--there's lots more information available online, but I'd still recommend talking to a full-service broker until you feel confident enough in your understanding of how the markets work to trade on your own via an online broker.