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42 comments on Hurricane Katrina Update: The Event that Introduces Peak Oil to a Nation

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Prof. Goose on August 27, 2005 - 12:51pm

and look at the new GOMEX predictions I posted. (they just got updated with the new forecast).

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL122005_gomex_oil.html

Projected 91% disruption of oil production if the weather models are correct, 68% for 10-30 days, 24% for over 30 days.

Wow. We're still 36 hours from landfall, but that is a daunting prospect.

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mw on August 27, 2005 - 1:00pm

Oh my.

Clearly if the track holds up as the models are increasingly agreeing on, there is certainly going to be at least the short term impact as reality; I wonder how early the first offshore damage assessments will be known... Tuesday / Wednesday? Next week is going to be terrifically volatile while the post storm impact is assessed.

Beyond production facilities I wonder how much refinery capacity is at risk.

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mw on August 27, 2005 - 1:37pm

The current total for storm losses: 30B.

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL122005_staterep.html

To put that in context, if accurate, its the most expensive hurricane in history. I think this just tells us it could be big, really big, but also not to wig out until more info is available...

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“This order [i.e. capitalism] is now bound to the technical and economic conditions of machine production which today determine the lives of all the individuals who are born into this mechanism, not only those directly concerned with the economic acquisition, with irresistible force. Perhaps it will so determine them until the last ton of fossilized coal is burnt.”

—Max Weber, 1905