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323 comments on DrumBeat: May 22, 2008
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323 comments on DrumBeat: May 22, 2008
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Let's hope their future isn't in bombers, cruise missiles and surveillance aircraft.
I've seen postings on various threads which follow the pattern "let's nuke (city/country) and grab their oil". Air power can be used to deny oil to someone else - it can't be used to seize oil assets.
In the best of times, it is hard enough to keep flammible liquids and gases under high pressure from blowing up in refineries and pipelines. Start throwing bombs or missiles around, and there is likely to be nothing left to seize.
Of course, the fact that it is stupid, immoral, and counter-productive doesn't mean that someone won't try it(:
Not to mention that things like pipe-lines and refineries are easier to blow up than to build, or maybe even to guard. Case in point: as far as I know Iraq's oil production is still slightly lower than the pre-war levels.
Better yet, I hear this from the same people opposed to the Iraq invasion. I guess someone better clue them in to exactly why we chose Iraq and not Zimbabwe to spread "democracy".
We were very careful when we "liberated" Iraq not to cause uneeded damage to the oil infrastructure.
I wonder what kind of flows we will be looking at if they get a political solution in place and allow foreign companies to drill? Anybody have any idea what they can pump?
Depends whether they really have that 350 billion barrels they now claim. The chances of that are about 5%.
I think years ago they hit a peak of about 4 million barrels a day. If they really have about the same reserves as Kuwait and Iran, that would put them in the same ballpark, up from about 2.3 today.
During the sanction years, Saddam was woefully under investing, so the facilities need tremendous work. Seem unlikely to happen unless the political situation improves a lot more than now seems possible. If peace breaks out, I think they might get another 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day in 5 to 10 years. The neocons who went in there for oil apparently think you could take it up tp 6-8 million. (I have no expertise in the oil industry.)
I heard somewhere that during the period of sanctions, Saddam had all flow meters and gauges removed from pipelines and storage tanks so that inspectors couldn't detect when he was cheating on quotas.
During the eight years that Iraq was at war with Iran, I think that they both produced at as high a rate as they could to pay for weapons. AFIK, when wells are produced at too high a rate you get "channeling" in the reservoir leaving a lot of oil unavailable for future production (stranded oil).
I am very curious as to what the real potential of Iraq is after decades of mismanagement.
Case in point: as far as I know Iraq's oil production is still slightly lower than the pre-war levels.
WHICH 'war'? Iraq had its 'Hey you - go pick on your neighbor Iran' conflict. Then the 'We have no opinion on your claims that your neighbor is slant drilling oil you claim' conflict that has been ongoing for years.