42 comments on Peak Oil Overview - March 2008 (Pdf and Powerpoint available)
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With oil doubling in price over a 2 year period from 05-07, then doubling again in one year to the present, there is one glaring question at hand:
What will happen to the price of oil if the IEA in their November report adjusts OPEC reserve counts down to a much smaller percentage than current? Let's say the price of oil is between 140-180 in November, and IEA's adjusted reserve report reduces overall OPEC members reserves down 25-40%. What happens to price then? Does it suddenly rise to 250-300? Should the IEA consider not releasing that report for fear of what might happen to world markets, the price of food, cost of transportation, etc.? In other words is it better to maintain a certain level of uncertainty regarding how much oil is out there, versus a reality based worldwide panic that causes most countries to stop exporting oil?
Right now, production is not keeping up with demand (unless you use economists' definitions, in which case production always equals demand). People will start catching on to this. If production actually starts to fall, this will be even more alarming. One doesn't know precisely when the decline in production will begin, but it could start before November 2008.
I am not sure how much longer the IEA could keep the secret of this problem hidden if it wanted to. Even if the IEA stopped publishing figures, or kept figures artificially high, knowledge of the problem is going to become more and more widespread. I am sure that most of the major governments are already well aware of the problem. Publishing the lower number may cause some difficulties, but I expect they would be there in almost the same time frame regardless.