219 comments on Dmitry Orlov's Book--Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects
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219 comments on Dmitry Orlov's Book--Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects
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GAIA Host Collective
There will be, no doubt, a worldwide collapse and Russia will suffer along with everyone else. Yet, Russia and the Russian people are probably in the very best position to survive. I mean there will likely be a higher percentage of Russians surviving the collapse than any other nation in the world.
Think about it, they have plenty of oil, if they just stop exporting, and they probably will. They have plenty of coal, again if they stop exporting. And they have land, lots and lots of land. And unlike almost every other place in the world, Russia has few if any water problems. And Russia, because of its immense size and sparse population, is less affected by all the other environmental problems like pollution and erosion than almost any other place in the world.
The Russian people are in the catbird seat when the world's economies collapse. True, many will suffer and many will die, but the average Russian will have a very good chance of surviving the collapse.
Ron Patterson
How is Russia going to protect itself from China if China decides it wants to 'share' some of those resources? 1 Billion vs. 150 million seems like a tall order without resorting to nukes, especially since Russia already gave China its best 'toys'.
That's why they would immediately escalate to a nuclear strike - and China knows it.
It might not stop them though.
China's army runs on oil. It will be in short supply and very expensive. Also, China will soon be in the throes of dealing with too many huge internal issues to invade Russia. Drought is already wracking their cropland, and the've become a food importer for the first time ever. That situation will only increase, causing internal strife. And if they do manage to invade? What, Siberia? Without oil and gas for heat, it's almost impossible to live there.
Siberia is where most of Russia's oil is.
Having internal troubles often means that a war is sought to divert attention.
Ron, while I believe your comments on the natural advantages of Russia are basicly correct it is not true that they have few environmental or pollution problems.The 70 years of communist management resulted in appalling degradation.
Nancy Lubin wrote a chapter on this subject in "The New World Order" edited by Carol Rae Hansen (1992).
Also,Vaclav Smil's "China's Environmental Crisis"(1993) could be of interest.
I'm sure there is more up to date information around as well.
thirra,
You should re-read the original post. He did not say that Russia has "few environmental/population problems". Here it is again, for your benefit:
"Russia, because of its immense size and sparse population, is less affected by all the other environmental problems like pollution and erosion than almost any other place in the world."
I think Australia is in a much better position than Russia. As a net energy exporter, Australia stands to benefit from any rise in energy prices.
Oil seeps off the NSW coast are yet to be assayed, perhaps a billion barrels there. The QLD coast is completely unexplored because of the great barrier reef. SA has geothermal energy sources estimated in excess of 50 billion barrels. Every state has massive energy resources close to population centers.
Australia also has vast areas of prime agricultural land that are uninhabited. Not to mention a climate which is warm and varied. Even though we are still in the grip of the worst drought ever Australia still manages to produce enough food for 70 million people. Much of this is energy intensive meat and dairy products. Water is a huge issue, but considering how bad things are now, is it really that critical?
If you consider Japan with only 17% of it's land arable and that's including land for urban and industrial use can supply half it's food requirements, Australia could support a population in excess of 200 million. Of course the lifestyle would be radically different, but that is a matter of choice. Just think about it; we cull 5 million kangaroos every year that go into dog food. Even that amount of meat would be sufficient. Dogs and cats just need a little bit of curry powder.
There is so much excess consumption here it is ridiculous, people just throw stuff away that is perfectly good. Many will loose their jobs, but there are so many areas that there are labor shortages that people will simply have to change.
Social order is the most important issue. How people react will determine their fate. Once people realize how well off they are compared to the rest of the world they will have great incentive to ensure that social cohesion is maintained.
Anyway, moral of this story; you better hurry up and emigrate while the doors are wide open. They will slam shut once the ideals of endless economic growth are seriously challenged.
Global Warming is turning Australia into even more of a desert than it already is. Extended, years long drought is destroying what little crop land there is. In 10 years it will struggle to support its current population, never mind 200m people. Russia on the other hand will be come a more temperate place, and areas formerly too cold to farm will become farmable. With plenty of sunlight, Australia will be able to produce lots of electricity, but for whom? All population areas will be too far away for export.
Japan only produces 23% of its food locally. I can dig out the article if you're interested. The rest is imported. 95% of energy is imported. They're in for a world of hurt, but at least their population is declining.