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For any new readers, ELM (Export Land Model) explained below:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2975
Declining Net Oil Exports Versus “Near Record High” Crude Oil Inventories: What is going on?
(September, 2007)
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2008/01/quantitative-assessment-of-futur...
A quantitative assessment of future net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters (January, 2008)
Neil King was just on CNN, basically discussing the ELM.
WestTexas,
Concerning assessments, I picked up Energy Bulletin today 5/31 that Texas is experiencing export declines. Where Mexico and Venezuela are now both showing higher decline rates. I am concerned because of EB comment about imports dropping like a rock, and it does not look good.
Any comment about this?
I attempted a simple connect the dots exercise, with three different data bases. Venezuela & Mexico = V&M. In 10/07, V&M accounted for 20% of total US petroleum imports and probably about 40% of Gulf Coast imports.
In any case, connecting the dots:
V&M showed a sharp annual decline rate in net oil exports in 2007.
From 10/07 to 3/08, they showed a very sharp decline rate in the volume of net oil exports delivered to American shores (annual decline rate of 32%/year).
Over the past four weeks, we have seen a big drop in the volume of crude oil imports into the Gulf Coast (from all sources).