I think my take away from that collection is the very poor standard of recognition of the important system level interconnections of the whole. Too many implicit or explicit expectation that this is a 2-3 year phase before things sort themselves out. Too many wide boys looking to make a fast buck.

What's not coming through is the big picture, the whole story, the way in which its a fundamental shift; before PO and after PO.

What's needed is someone with the ability to draw together and present an obvious story that leads people to realise that big picture. Someone like an Adam Curtis; a reporter that could do a real job of presenting the facts in a way that gets to the heart of why people get worried.

Too many people calling themselves journalists when they don't have the attention or intellect to be anything other than talking heads.

As Jerome pointed out recently, sooner or later the MSM gets around to publishing the stuff that has been on blogs for months (or years). From our top five paper:

Declining net oil exports will inevitably result, absent a severe decline in demand in importing countries, in continued rapid increases in oil prices, as oil importing countries furiously bid against each other for declining oil exports.

In simplest terms, we are concerned that the very lifeblood of the world industrial economy—net oil export capacity—is draining away in front of our very eyes, and we believe that it is imperative that major oil importing countries like the United States launch an emergency Electrification of Transportation program--electric light rail and streetcars--combined with a crash wind power program.

As Alan Drake has pointed out, the United States--with roughly 1/3rd its current population, 1/25th of its current inflation adjusted GDP and with primitive Technology --built subways in its largest cities and streetcars in 500 cities, towns and villages in just 20 years (1897-1916), which does not even take into account numerous interurban systems.

If we could do it in 1908 with mules, manual labor and with minimal fossil fuel input, why can't we do it 2008?

Two top 10 net oil exporters and two top sources of imported oil to the US, Venezuela & Mexico, from 10/07 to 3/08 showed sharply lower net oil exports to the US--with their net oil exports to the US declining at an annual rate of 32%/year.

I have a question.

If there were NO Fossil Fuels of any type stuck in the ground, to be dug out by the monkeymen, what would we be doing in the year 2008 for power(energy) in terms of a "civilized" society?

Without abundant coal the industrial revolution would never have happened. We would still live in a low population agrarian society (which may be preferable to the current mess we've gotten ourselves into).

It would have been nearly impossible to develop our level of technology without the cheap, abundant energy provided by fossil fuels. We can only hope that we have enough of it left to build an economy based on renewable energy, or we're in for a nasty surprise when the wells run dry.

Sure, we could do that so long as the whole society doesn't collapse into warring factions. What worries me is that this nation is so Balkanized with multiculturalism. Will it hold together under severe stress? I'm afraid we're in for a really rough ride.

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=169989
Russian oil exports down 4.9%

Oil exports stood at 81.7 million metric tons in the first four months
of 2008, down 4.9% against the same period last year.

Isn't this a bit steep to just be decline rate? I know they have a tax boondoggle at the moment but it still seems a bit much. Does anyone know if they have major regions that unexpectedly went belly up? Or is there some kind of market manipulation/hoarding going on?

Wasn't it at about 3.5% a month ago? A 1.4% drop month on month is pretty huge.

Heck, what I want to know is when did Russia join OPEC? ... only partly laughing.

Net Export decline rates tend to be steeper than the production decline rates, and the export decline rates tend to accelerate with time. Our middle case (not the worst case) has Russia approaching zero net oil exports within 16 years.

Have you tried contacting him?

curtis I mean?

Boris
London