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I took three test drives in the 2nd generation Prius when it first came out. I liked it but it was more expensive than a comparable sized ICE in spite of the government subsidies that were being offered. I was also concerned with the possibility of expensive repairs as it aged. I doubt that the world is going to be saved by hybrids. Still I am enthusiastic about efficient driving and a 55 mph speed limit. I am old enough to recall the 35 mph speed limit of WWII and my father's B card.
Around the time of an earlier gas crisis there was an interesting problem related to the reduction and ultimate elimination of lead in gasoline. The regulations came on fast and and the auto companies found it difficult to adjust. Did tetra ethyl lead save oil? Might be an interesting topic for one of our smart engineers to research. I had a big Ford station wagon at about this time. I did well to get 10mpg.
I can explain that. Tetra ethyl lead is a cheap octane booster and lets engines run higher compression. Higher compression is a win-win all around because it gives better power AND better efficiency. When we moved to unleaded gas in the early 70's because of catalytic converters and environmental effects, unleaded had a much lower octane rating, and automakers reduced compression ratios. In the time since then, we've gotten better at designing combustion chambers that can run high compression on 87-91 octane fuel.
Only 6 years ago, I was driving a 1986 Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme Broughm that got...
12 miles per gallon.
You could seat 6 comfortably, fit an elephant in the trunk, and almost peal rubber while driving 60mph with the rear wheel drive.
A prius would squash into the grill like a large june bug.
I think the transition to Prius-like cars is going to be a sudden thing in a few years. There are multiple concurrent effects that could make it non-linear.
1)gas prices
2)carbon scare
3)techological proress
4)Nuclear plants plus plug-in options
5)Less fear of the disapearing deadly old steal beasts
6)everyone else has one
We'll wake up one morning and all of the neighbors will be getting 40mpg.