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18 comments on Tom Tomorrow: A Brief History of Gasoline Consumption in America
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18 comments on Tom Tomorrow: A Brief History of Gasoline Consumption in America
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TT's implication seems to be that people respond to the price, not to idealistic visions or predictions of the future -- contrary to what everyone thought in the 1970's and on Earth Day. "All the idealists have sold out," complains one letter writer on Salon (approximate quotation).
Well, true enough. But people tend to do what is perceived and enforced as "normal". Societies can go through cataclysmic changes in a fairly short period of time, during which time what is "normal" may totally change. Before the American Civil War, slavery was normal in the South. Just in the past few decades, massive fossil fuel consumption has been normal in many places.
There is nothing about human nature that makes it necessary that high consumption be normal. Research seems to indicate declining marginal utility of consumption for adding to human happiness once basic needs are met.
Of course, at this point in "overshoot," it's not clear we can even meet basic needs of everyone even if we tried. But the good news is that if you get it (the comic strip seems funny / ironic), you see the problem, and if this is funny /ironic to a large enough group of people, we have a fighting chance to redefine "normal" when the prices get high enough.
Keith
Yes. Most often that cataclysmic change is violent, fiercely opposed and not voluntary. Sadly often taking a form of a war or a war-like state of emergency. No wonder most people want to try and continue their state of normality :)
I'm not sure. The excess availability of cheap surplus energy has always meant that all that surplus energy is used. I can't think of a civilization that has resisted the temptation to grow (size, rate, complexity, etc) using available surplus energy.
As long as a gross excessive energy surplus exists compared to the current baseline energy requirement (for existing size/rate/complexity), people will grow to use up that surplus. After that growth has been internalized and made 'normal', the surplus ceases to exist conceptually and the new consumption is now the baseline.
Many argue, that the only way to peel pack is non-voluntary powerdown: that is, energy scarcity that forces one to cut down in size/rate/complexity and settle to a new level of normality.
However, excluding outlier data point individuals, societies as whole rarely - if ever - cut energy usage in planned, synchronized and voluntary manner - at least not unless there is a war like state of emergency. Efficiency may rise (e.g. Japan), but the absolute consumption seems to always rise, until constrained.
I agree that such cataclysmic change can be violent. It's a problem. One also thinks, though, of the fall of the Soviet Union, which in the 1950's and 1960's we would only have imagined in the context of nuclear war or a global conventional war. So there is the very great danger of violence, but violence is not inevitable by any means.
I'm not sure either, but here's the case that growth is not inevitable. On human nature and consumption, check out "The High Price of Materialism" by Tim Kasser (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2002, 149 Pages). This is a straightforward, nontechnical book that provides basic evidence that human nature does not desire indefinite expansion of consumption and in fact may be negatively correlated with consumption. It is reviewed here: http://compassionatespirit.com/high-price-of-materialism.htm
The problem is at the systems level. The social system rewards domination and dependence drives growth. If the economic system rewards those who are driven to earn and consume more, despite the fact that it doesn't make them happy, then neurotic, unhappy people will become the captains of industry and the leaders of the country.
TOD's own Jeff Vail has posted on "rhizome." Check out this:
http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/rhizome
His theory is that dependency drives growth. He proposes that instead of a society with a hierarchical structure which demands growth, we should have a structure of interconnected networks which are each minimally self-sufficient. Eliminate dependency, you eliminate the necessity of growth.
Here are three off-the-cuff proposals aimed at making social domination more difficult and reducing social dependence. (1) A steep progressive income tax (like say 100% on incomes over $100,000 U. S., or pick your own figure). (2) Advertising should not be tax-deductible, in fact it should be taxed as a public nuisance. (3) A guaranteed annual income, or "negative income tax" as proposed by Milton Friedman is another thought. This is wild and crazy stuff and this proposal needs elaboration to make practical -- one immediately thinks concerning the guaranteed annual income, where's the incentive to work at all? But these sorts of proposals are the kinds of things I'd like to see addressed.
Keith
Have you ever heard of Edo Japan?
They changed when someone sailed up and started shelling them with modern explosive shells.
Commodore Perry. He demanded they trade and grow.
He was American :)