155 comments on Peak Oil and Reflexivity and Peak Oil
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155 comments on Peak Oil and Reflexivity and Peak Oil
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GAIA Host Collective
The other night at a meeting (where the guest speaker was Raj Patel) a local rancher made this same case for oil price rise, and said it was similar to the speculation in land. Such speculative buying has driven the price of land so high that people wanting to buy land for actual economic activity are finding it hard to do so.
I guess a difference is that speculators actually own the land, but the similarity is that they are buying it with the goal of resale at a higher price rather than use.
Do you see land speculation as a basically similar phenomenon?
It's related but different. They aren't making any more land, so I expect 'infinite' dollars will chase 'finite' land in the same way that dollars chase oil. But land isn't liquid at room temperature and in order to maximize the Ricardian rent on land, you need lots of other inputs: people, energy, equipment, etc. There are also unique local economic characteristics in each region that limit true global fungibility for land, beyond pure speculation. We aren't going to start resource wars over land in Mendocino county, but certainly could over oil.
Also as far as land goes a lot of the land bubble was driven by the housing bubble. If the intended use of the land is for a subdivision and your getting 150k-800k and acre for finished lots then the original cost of land is almost no object. This was a huge factor in inflating land values. With the subdivision market effectively gone then agricultural uses garner a much lower price. This effect is so large and it still being felt that other economic aspects of land are probably buried.
Since land is only one of the inputs into agricultural use with oil a predominate other on the cost side you have a strong factor driving down what farmers can pay for land.
Next farmland has a robust rental market similar in some respects to the housing rental market if land prices get to distorted it becomes better to rent than to own. Once this point is reached upward pressure on farmland for farming drops off rapidly. This is what generally collapses speculation in farm land.
I'll stop there but I suspect that land prices will eventually collapse as farmers become limited by the amount they can invest in diesel and fertilizer vs crop prices. Leaving little cash to speculate on buying more farmland and rent vs own calculation favors rent.
I'm a big fan of Soros, his theory of reflexivity and have enjoyed both "the alchemy of finance" and his new one "the new paradigm"...I still believe most Americans are underestimating what is happening with oil....right now demand is around 86.5 million barrels and exceeds supply of around 85 million barrels per day. We're depleting at around 6 million a day which we have to make up to get to 85 million a day.....supply does NOT cover demand.....as far as demand destruction...our slowing US economy/ subprime crisis , recession etc has lessened US demand by around 400k barrels but emerging asia (China, India ) has picked up 500k barrels....I believe we can only expect so much demand destruction anyway the reason: as anyone who has taken econ 101 knows ...Oil is the classic text book example of "price inelasticity of demand" in other words...."Goods that everyone worldwide needs, cannot consume less of, and cannot find substitutes for even if prices rise. For such goods, the price elasticity of demand is considered inelastic" Crude has essentially decoupled from the weak US dollar story. Yes, the dollar will probably remain weak and yes, it is a factor. Oil is not really just a dollar story but is a supply/demand story. Emerging Asia (China and India ) will continue to see phenomenal growth rates...they are essentially emerging from their dark ages and entering the modern world...they have just begun, they have along way to go....oil is going alot higher from here...and yes, pullbacks, even major ones will happen along the way....as an investor these are opportunities to make money...the trend will end up reasserting itself...we need substitutes for oil in a massive way, right now nothing can be done in a big enough way to stop this ...hopefully this will change soon....in the meantime get long and stay long----Patrick Kerr of OilGasFutures.Com
I'm with you on "price inelasticity of demand" of petroleum-based energy in general. There is a little buffer where the world can destruct some demand, but once we get down to cutting out the fluff, what then. We all still need fuel/energy to run the world the way it is. At that point, when we've cut the fluff, price will rebound and then BAU ceases. Instead of cutting fluff, we cut the lesser essentials. Some countries are already to the point where they gone throught those cuts and are starting to cut things that we would all call essential for survival.
agreed