155 comments on Peak Oil and Reflexivity and Peak Oil
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155 comments on Peak Oil and Reflexivity and Peak Oil
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I'm a big fan of Soros, his theory of reflexivity and have enjoyed both "the alchemy of finance" and his new one "the new paradigm"...I still believe most Americans are underestimating what is happening with oil....right now demand is around 86.5 million barrels and exceeds supply of around 85 million barrels per day. We're depleting at around 6 million a day which we have to make up to get to 85 million a day.....supply does NOT cover demand.....as far as demand destruction...our slowing US economy/ subprime crisis , recession etc has lessened US demand by around 400k barrels but emerging asia (China, India ) has picked up 500k barrels....I believe we can only expect so much demand destruction anyway the reason: as anyone who has taken econ 101 knows ...Oil is the classic text book example of "price inelasticity of demand" in other words...."Goods that everyone worldwide needs, cannot consume less of, and cannot find substitutes for even if prices rise. For such goods, the price elasticity of demand is considered inelastic" Crude has essentially decoupled from the weak US dollar story. Yes, the dollar will probably remain weak and yes, it is a factor. Oil is not really just a dollar story but is a supply/demand story. Emerging Asia (China and India ) will continue to see phenomenal growth rates...they are essentially emerging from their dark ages and entering the modern world...they have just begun, they have along way to go....oil is going alot higher from here...and yes, pullbacks, even major ones will happen along the way....as an investor these are opportunities to make money...the trend will end up reasserting itself...we need substitutes for oil in a massive way, right now nothing can be done in a big enough way to stop this ...hopefully this will change soon....in the meantime get long and stay long----Patrick Kerr of OilGasFutures.Com
I'm with you on "price inelasticity of demand" of petroleum-based energy in general. There is a little buffer where the world can destruct some demand, but once we get down to cutting out the fluff, what then. We all still need fuel/energy to run the world the way it is. At that point, when we've cut the fluff, price will rebound and then BAU ceases. Instead of cutting fluff, we cut the lesser essentials. Some countries are already to the point where they gone throught those cuts and are starting to cut things that we would all call essential for survival.
agreed