Drought 'to be biggest world risk'

A catastrophic water shortage could prove an even bigger threat to mankind this century than soaring food prices and the relentless exhaustion of energy reserves, according to a panel of global experts at the Goldman Sachs "Top Five Risks" conference.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/05/ccwate...

Fungus Improves the Efficiency of Ethanol Processing

Growing a fungus in some of the leftovers from ethanol production can save energy, recycle more water and improve the livestock feed that is a co-product of fuel production, according to a team of researchers from Iowa State University and the University of Hawai'i.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=52666

Electric Cars for 2010

With oil prices rocketing past $130 per barrel, a growing number of vehicle makers are planning to offer electric vehicles by 2010. Zero gasoline will be used.
Over 40,000 electric vehicles (EV) are currently used in the United States. Most are used in fleet applications, from maintenance to checking parking meters; these EVs are mostly limited to 25 mph speed and 20 mile range. A growing number of fleet EVs, however, are early trails of a new generation of freeway-speed EVs that will be available to the mass consumer market in 2010.

http://cleantechblog.com/

Inflatable electric car can drive off cliffs

It's hard to say what the most intriguing thing about XP Vehicles' inflatable car is. Maybe it's that the car can travel for up to 2,500 miles on a single electric charge (the distance across the US is roughly 3,000 miles).
Or maybe it's the fact that you buy the car online, it gets shipped to you in two cardboard boxes, and the estimated assembly time is less than two hours. Perhaps it's that the car is made out of "airbags" - the same polymer materials used to cushion NASA's rovers when they landed on Mars. Then again, it could be the company's claim that you can drive the car off a cliff without serious injury, and that it will float in a flood or tsunami.

http://www.physorg.com/news131804347.html

Airbus maker pledges green planes by 2020

The manufacturer of the A380 superjumbo has pledged to produce greener planes powered by radical "step change" technology before 2020 in response to airline clamour for more fuel-efficient aircraft.
Airbus said it would produce planes powered by "emerging technology" by the end of the next decade, as the high oil price becomes a bigger driver for change than the environmental debate.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/03/theairlineindustry.eads
The first of many times where fuel costs are going to trump environmental concerns? I sense a shift in the wind.

Nuclear questions for Lovins
What should I ask the efficiency guru about nuclear power?

Amory Lovins is on the warpath against nuclear power, battling the industry PR push that says nuclear is a viable climate solution.

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/6/4/114643/8098

Energy firm offers deal to start nuclear clean-up

Energysolutions and its partner Toshiba have offered to kick start the UK's stalled nuclear clean-up programme - in return for being given the sites to build a new fleet of reactors.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/01/utilities.britishenergygr...

How Compressed Air Could Power the Future

Wind power is unreliable. No one can turn up the wind every time electricity demand peaks. So some utilities are looking at ways to bottle up the wind's energy and store it underground for later use.
"The wind blows a lot at 2 in the morning, so it makes sense to save it and use it at 5 in the afternoon when everyone comes home from work,"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20080604/sc_livescience/howcompresse...

Cost of Solar Panels Expected To Plummet

Solar photovoltaics have their challenges, from shortages of silicon to the sheer cost of purchasing and installing solar panels, but a new report from the Prometheus Institute says that both these problems will be addressed over the next few years, leading to cheaper solar and an abundance of capacity to produce.

http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/1704/

If they can get one car to drive off a cliff, why can't they get all of them.

Per a discussion here a few days ago, I decided to commute home yesterday by bicycle from Santa Clara to Hollister via downtown San Jose. I would describe it as 59 miles of congested city and narrow countries roads.

I only experienced two minor incidents. One car pushed me over in the right turn lane, and then proceeded to go straight through the intersection. 50 miles later a minivan with mom/kids in it honked when she was close behind me even though the other lane was clearly open. It could have been a courtesy honk, if there is such a thing.

Everyone else made a point of staying clear enhancing my belief that nobody really wants to hit a bike. It's just too expensive.

Also, I wouldn't bet on solar panels dropping in price anytime soon. The concept of supply and demand should be clear on this site, and if you look at the balance sheet of any of these companies, they carry close to zero finished goods inventory. If anything, prices have increased this year. Please attach a link if you see a deal on panels.

I'm taking the Mercedes in today. I'm beat. Maybe I'll straife a few bikes just for fun ;)

If you read the article I linked to you would see that the concept of supply and demand is at the heart of it.
Massive new supply is coming on line by 2010, and most of it is not spoken for.
It usually pays to read information before attempting a critique. :-)

I'm pretty confident that Germany and Japan will suck up any solar capacity that may come online. China as well, given their most recent push to have more renewable energy on their grid. As interest in renewable energy grows due to rising energy prices, solar will capture more interest and buyers. A side benefit is that as long as solar doesn't get any more expensive, it will get "cheaper" by default in that it will cost less in comparison to traditional power as it gets more expensive.

The analysis of excess supply is pretty detailed and robust.
Germany is actually making efforts to cut back their subsidy, not increase it.
It costs a fortune at the moment, which was OK whilst it was a tiny proportion of the grid, but is getting expensive.
On top of that, PV power which is tied in to the grid is a truly daft source of energy in Germany.
Just when you most need it, in the winter, it generates very little power, so the grid has to run more to make up, or would do if it produced any worthwhile power anyway.
In the summer when demand is slack then the grid is tied in to pay fantastic rates for electricity it doesn't need, as base load copes fine.
Solar PV power makes sense in hot climates where load peaks during the day in hot weather, in Germany it makes as much sense as ethanol from corn.
Japan may take some more, but has not got an unlimited budget.
China and other relatively poor countries are big on residential solar thermal, but not high cost PV, and won't go to the subsidies needed.
All is not lost though, as if they slash prices then it will actually start getting installed where it does make sense, where a/c needs are high.
California is the prime example, as it consumes most energy when it is sunniest.
So I would suggest that the second wave will have very different characteristics to the first, subsidised wave, with it actually being economic in some areas where transmission lines would otherwise need to be built and solar resources are good.
There should still be considerable cost pressure on suppliers though.

I live in Germany an it looks as if I am getting into solar PV just at the last chance. I expect delivery of a 6 KWp system next month. It will be connected to the grid because then I am paid 47 (euro) cents for every kwh I generate with it. I currently pay 17 cents for power I draw from the grid. However, I am wondering at which point I should change the inverter and buy batteries.
I hope I can change over just before we start getting brown outs and everyone wants to change over.

A side benefit is that as long as solar doesn't get any more expensive, it will get "cheaper" by default in that it will cost less in comparison to traditional power as it gets more expensive.

People don't buy $25,000 cars with cash, they finance them. People are finally waking up to the fact that they can do the same thing with a solar electric system. You can continue buying dirty centralized electricity from the utilities, or you can start producing your own decentralized renewable electricity.

The solar energy industry is booming. If you're looking for a job, go to FindSolar.com, find the websites of qualified installers in your area, and call and set up an interview with them.

I think solar has a great future. But it is usually best to choose somewhere sunny, where a 5kw system won't turn out a tiny fraction of it's rated power when you need it most.

Thanks for the hot tip Dave...I Guess won't need a solar system on the roof of my house in Fairbanks. What would you guess that maximum northern/southern latitude for effective solar use would be?

If you split your time between Alaska and Florida, spending your summer in Alaska, then solar might work for you. You get about 70% of the typical US sunlight anually, http://www.nrel.gov/gis/images/us_pv_annual_may2004.jpg but it is concentrated in the summer. You can see month by month maps here: http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html

Chris

Most places in the States aren't too bad. Northern Europe has exceptionally lousy resources as it has higher cloud cover than almost anywhere in America in addition to being at very high latitude, and the performance reflects that.
Residential solar thermal works almost everywhere.

Everyone else made a point of staying clear enhancing my belief that nobody really wants to hit a bike. It's just too expensive.

It's not always a matter of intention. But you're absolutely right about it being expensive. How much for a human life?

Car crashes into bike race -- do not click if squeamish.

jteehan writes:

"Per a discussion here a few days ago, I decided to commute home yesterday by bicycle from Santa Clara to Hollister via downtown San Jose. I would describe it as 59 miles of congested city and narrow countries roads."

You should be beat. I don't know of anyone who consistently cycle commutes over 8 miles in one direction unless they are multi-modal, ie bike to bus or train to work, back on bike/train to home.

You deserve a fricken' medal for trying a 59 mile commute. Either that or you really are crazy. B^)

By mile 30 I would call a cab.

I pretty regularly commute 20 miles each way on a bike. Granted, that isn't 59 miles, but it's still a lot more than 8. Generally, it takes about an hour go either way, so that isn't much different from a long driving commute, and I get some excercise to boot. The only crappy part comes when I blow an inner tube half way in either direction. I hate walking 9 miles in bike shoes.

I do 40-60 miles a day average for work as a messenger, all of it urban. It isn't as tough as it sounds. Isn't normal to be certain but in my job it is, many guys are doing 100 miles a day in places like NYC.

Ironically what has become something I really just don't enjoy as much as I used to is eating, at 3500-4500 calories a day it gets real tedious real fast. The muscle pains and other pains associated with the physical effort go away fairly quickly, once gone they really don't come back. 10-20 hours a week of aerobic exercise makes you a machine.

I posted the following articles a few days ago. The articles are from the Financial Times and come with a graph that shows that in the year 2010, estimated supply of solar cells will be 17 gigawatts and demand only 8 gigawatts. I guess they mean that prices will drop substantially so as to allow uptake of all this excess production. Please understand that I am just the messenger here.
Silver lining in solar power storm clouds

The solar power business is bracing itself for a collapse in prices that could lead to a shake-out in one of the most promising areas of the renewable energy sector.

...

According to Dean Cooper, analyst at Ambrian, the global capacity for production of photovoltaic equipment - the biggest section of solar power technology which converts sunlight directly into electricity - is set to increase "dramatically", from 3 gigawatts last year to 15 to 20 gigawatts of production in 2010. Much of the growth is coming from China.
Prices for solar components would drop from about $3.80 per watt to about $1.40 a watt by 2010, he said. That could prompt consolidation in the sector within the next six months, with smaller players falling prey to longer established companies.



Squeeze is on as interest grows in solar sector

The problems facing the solar sector exemplify the growing pains of a small industry.
The revenues from solar panels - or photovoltaics - stood at only $21.2bn last year, according to Lux Research, despite three decades of technological development.
Lux forecasts they will reach $71bn in 2012 even though the industry faces falling margins, a squeeze on subsidies and an oversupply of the components.

It would seem that it is good news. Naturally, I would like to know whether it is too early to take a deep breath.

I guess it's time to sell your solar stocks (if you have some).

See my link upthread.
I had rather smaller figures for production, of around 12GW, but still a surplus.
In my view this is the point at which the solar market grows up, and moves into markets where it is appropriate, where the biggest need is for peak hour power in hot climates for a/c, and powers places which are difficult to connect to the grid.
The days of just going where the subsidies are biggest are drawing to a close.
The power will actually start reaching substantial numbers a year, with average hourly power of 3-4GW after allowing for night-time and so on.

What if tropical conditions cause clouds and rain to persist for weeks on end? Not at all unusual in tropical climes. Some areas are hit by multiple consecutive hurricanes and tropical storms. One time here in Central Florida it rained so hard for so long that all the frogs drowned. Florida had to call on several other southern states to replinish the frog population before all the big bass starved to death. See, if all the bass starve then it wrecks the televised fishing tourneys and that hurts the Florida economy...which is none too healthy these days. How well does this solar work if it rains for a month? I can see I need to get up to speed on this solar stuff and you seem to know all about it.

If you have plenty of space, you can work around cloud cover.
Amorphous silicon performs much better than crystalline, but the overall efficiency is lower.
You buy it by the maximum rated output though, and amorphous silicon is cheaper than crystalline by area, so as long as you aren't space restricted you are fine.
Here is the skinny:
http://www.solarvoltaic.com/images/doc/solar%20abstract.pdf
solar%20abstract.pdf

Any form of concentrated solar power would be hopeless with high cloud cover.
What I don't know about is the performance of the various thin-film exotic materials - you might want to check out the specs on First Solar.
No point looking at Nanosolar as they are not producing for the residential market at the moment.
For your hot water, residential solar thermal is much more efficient.
There are some systems which combine thermal and PV - I haven't looked into the costs or whether they use amorphous silicon.
For the thermal component, some prefer flat plate on the grounds that it is more robust, others the evacuated tube as it is more efficient.
For your Florida home I would look at flat plate as there is plenty of energy for that purpose anyway.
For the Alaska home I would consider evacuated tube first, and make sure that it was well-insulated - not so much need to bother about that in Florida.
For heating in your Alaska home I would take a look at air heat pumps - they now have some which will work at very low temperatures:
http://www.jarn.co.jp/News/2003_Q2/30620_Eco_Cute.htm
"Eco Cute" CO2 Heat Pump Water Heaters
there is a Canadian supplier of heat pumps which work down to low temperatures too - can't remember the name.
If you have to go to ground source it is a lot more expensive, but if you have plenty of land you might be able to borrow a digger and excavate out yourself to put in your slinkies.
If you have water nearby that is ideal, as it is a great heat reservoir.

To eliminate cold spots in the insulation, where window frames fit in and so on, try aerogel - it is the best insulator in the world, and so can be used in very thin layers around the end of joists and so on. It is about $5/sq ft:
http://www.aerogel.com/products/overview.html
ASPEN AEROGELS | PRODUCTS OVERVIEW

Hope this helps - if you need any more info contact me at brittanicone2007 at yahoo dot co dot uk

We lived ten years in a tropical city (12° South) that was subject to about five months of heavy cloud and long-lasting monsoonal rain (about 2.5m per annum). We had solar thermal that for seven months was so hot I had to partially cover the panels to cool it down. During the wet season however it lost effectiveness. By the end of February, the hot tap and the cold tap were about the same temperature - sickly tepid. It didn't matter really - the last thing you wish for in such a climate is a hot shower - you sweat right through it. We rejected aircon as well - languid ceiling fans and wide-open windows and doors are a great solution - especially if 100% humidity doesn't concern you.

You could always fascinate the kids by pouring some water on to a non-porous surface, and days later it would still be there despite the heat - no way it would evaporate away.

One time here in Central Florida it rained so hard for so long that all the frogs drowned.

LAUGH Good one!

I'll take a gigawatt, please. I've got lots of friends. ;-)

In the future, you might consider driving from your home to some intermediate point where you can safely park your car for the day, and cycling the rest of the way in. Most of the bumper-to-bumper, stop -and-go congestion that you'll see will be on that leg closest to work, and you might very well make better time on a bike than by driving. On the other hand, once you get out of the city the traffic thins out, and you'll be able to drive at a more steady speed and get hugely better gas mileage on that leg. You'll also be driving during those segments of your route when it is most likely to be dark in the wintertime, so your personal safety will be less at risk than it would be if you attempted to drive it.

Religion and the survival of culture
by John Michael Greer

The raw material of religion certainly exists in modern science, or rather scientism, the belief system that has grown up around the simple but powerful logic of the scientific method; Carl Sagan, who did more than any other recent thinker to cast that belief system in religious terms, is arguably one of the significant theologians of the 20th century.

To call science and the scientific method a belief system is to demonstrate a complete misunderstanding of both. They are antithetical to belief. Carl Sagan may have been many things but "one of the significant theologians of the 20th century." Puleeze! ROFLMAO!!!

As Carl Sagan said: "We are all made of star-stuff!". He and Stephen Jay Gould did more to debunk the mixing of belief systems and science than almost anyone else that popular, in my view.

I'm no physicist or cosmologist, but I have read a lot of grumbling about how a lot of the new physics like string theory or cosmological theory like the big bang are basically untestable using the scientific method. If you can't test it via experimentation, does it not take on an element of belief? I'm not saying that this is the point the author made nor that he's correct, I'm simply making an observation about the state of science.

I'm no physicist or cosmologist, but I have read a lot of grumbling about how a lot of the new physics like string theory or cosmological theory like the big bang are basically untestable using the scientific method. If you can't test it via experimentation, does it not take on an element of belief?

No it makes it mathematics. The big bang model makes testable predictions, as does string theory. The problem with string theory is the testable predictions it makes that differ with the standard model are largely untestable with todays equipment, and so today its just playing with a new mathematical model that describes the world in the same way as the other mathematical model.

Saying that string theory is the model that describes the universe would be a faith based statement. String theorists aren't saying this.