Thanks for putting contributing a plan. I'm not smart enough to offer my own, but I did have a couple of musings on your proposals.

Well, I believe that markets will help to solve the problem, but government can help accelerate us towards a solution through the use of sound policy.

Our government come up with a sound policy? The only way this can happen is if this "sound policy" benefited the _________ (insert your favorite corporate lobby here) industry. If Boeing, GE, et al decided to get out of the weapons business and start building smart cars, it might garner support for your plan in Congress. Unless a majority of Americans pay attention to the political process and work to influence positive outcomes, nothing will change. Even if they do, they are fed so much misinformation that many (most) will support the wrong thing anyways.

From your blog:

First, eliminate the use of heating oil in American homes. Heating oil and diesel fuel are essentially the same product, so heating oil demand directly impacts the price of diesel and gasoline. Replacing oil heating with gas heating would replace demand for imported oil with demand for natural gas that is produced primarily in the US and Canada.

Natural gas prices have been rising faster than oil. Shifting demand from heating oil to natural gas is sure to drive the price of it even higher. Natural gas is needed to make fertilizers which are also experiencing dramatic up ticks in price. We can always carpool, ride bikes, drive slower, downsize vehicles, etc. but we're always going to need fertilizer unless there is some type of shift to less industrial farming and more permaculture. Either way, I doubt we'll be supporting 9 billion people in 2050 as is commonly forecasted. If we are, it will only be at disastrous cost to the ecosystem.

I know it's a tired cliche, but the thought of deck chairs on a sinking cruise liner come to mind...

I'd welcome comments on the proposals - while many have suggested raising gas taxes and other Pigovian solutions, I think the steps I've proposed might have a slightly better reception, since they don't involve "penalties".

The "carrot" only approach only reinforces the idea that BAU can continue ad infinitum. The first step to solving a crisis is admitting that one exists. We have not reached that point yet. I fear that once people start to grasp the seriousness of the situation, the sucking sound you hear will be the global economy going down the toilet.

Thanks for trying to make positive suggestions, we can use more of that around here. I hope my comments can help refine your proposals. Cheers.

Natural gas prices have been rising faster than oil.

It's not only that. If you map local natural gas availability against use of oil for heat in New England (where most of the oil heating occurs) you'll note that natural gas isn't even an option without a local NG infrastructure build out first. So what's going to happen in short order is this: Once heating oil passes about $5 a gallon (that is, about 40 cents from now) it will be more expensive in New England than passive electric heat (heat pumps not being efficient in New England's cold winters). Those who can least afford the oil will quickly switch to space heaters, not just to save money, but because electricity, unlike oil, is generally billed after you use it, not before.

There are also a lot of wood pellet systems - both stoves and furnaces - being installed in New England. Unfortunately, pellets are in large part a byproduct of lumber production. Lumber production is way down. There will be pellet shortages this winter, driving prices up. And pellet prices historically have risen to near-parity with oil. Regular wood stoves can be fed more cheaply, if you don't count the labor involved even in stacking wood and building the fire.

Still, there will be a large switch to electric heat. That will (1) fry the mains - most of New England is already close to electrical infrastructure capacity even at last year's loads; (2) start fires in badly-wired older houses; (3) cause the utilities to buy more power. As for the last, wholesale electricity prices are largely determined by the price of NG, since nationally many of the newest generators burn that. So this will in that indirect way be a move to NG, pushing its cost up more, pushing electricity's cost up more. If that goes up enough, those of us who can afford it in New England will fire up our oil furnaces again.

What we really need is massive investment in wind, nuclear and electrical infrastructure. Unfortunately there are too many retirees in New England who can't stand the sight of wind mills, and hippies who can't stand the thought of radiation.

Hi, I don't suppose that it will save your grid getting fried, but air heat pumps are now being built which can cope with New England Temperatures.
Here is a Canadian company:
http://www.gotohallowell.com/technical.html
Hallowell International: Technical Data

The Japanese, surprise surprise, are also moving fast on this with pumps using carbon dioxide:
http://www.r744.com/news/news_ida210.php
Coming soon: ITOMIC Eco-cute heat pump - R744.com News

I believe that it may be some time before those are available in the States though.
If you think of getting one the guy to talk to is Here in Halifax - I think he recommends a Fuji model.

Hi Dave,

Just so they don't go moving the international boundary markers on our account, Hallowell is an American company based in Bangor, Maine. And you were close -- Fujitsu is the manufacturer of ductless heat pumps I consider to be among the very best in the industry.

Cheers,
Paul

Darn! You've uncovered our nefarious British Imperialist plot to 'readjust' the boundary!

Dup post

... heat pumps not being efficient in New England's cold winters...

Hi whit,

Can you elaborate on this point for me? I'm curious because I live in an area that is at least as cold if not colder than New England and my heat pump has slashed my heating costs by some 75 per cent.

Cheers,
Paul