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282 comments on DrumBeat: June 12, 2008
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282 comments on DrumBeat: June 12, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
Here in North Iowa my farm has had 11 inches of rain in the last two weeks. About 10-15 acres of corn is under water. The corn not in the lakes looks pretty good though.
It is all ethanol's fault. (sarcasm)
X,
What's the absolute, positively, latest, drop-dead date that a not-completely-insane farmer can re-plant up there? (At $7.00 Corn?) And, then, how much later would you attempt it? :)
What's the REAL attitude of the farmers?
In AR, everyday past the 15th of June you lose a bu per acre.
That's beans.
I know that you never plant cotton in June.
Corn is in there somewhere.
)
[PDF]
Corn Planting Guide
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTML
IN THE PAST, CORN PLANTING WAS DELAYED. until late May or early June for several ... hybrids should be used; after June 10. to 15, corn planting is risky ...
www.extension.iastate.edu/Publications/PM1885.pdf - Similar pages - Note this
Planting corn after June 20 nets 50% yield loss, specialist says
A costly deadline looms for many growers in the Midwest, as every day of waiting for the weather to cooperate to plant corn and soybeans reduces potential ...
www.agriculture.com/ag/story.jhtml?storyid=/templatedata/ag/story/data/1... - 13k - Cached - Similar pages - Note this
Wisconsin Crop Manager newsletter - Planting Corn For Silage ...
Corn forage yield decreases with later planting date (Figure 1). Forage yield of corn planted on June 1 is lower than earlier planting dates in May and ...
ipcm.wisc.edu/WCMNews/tabid/53/EntryID/401/Default.aspx
What's the REAL attitude of the farmers? LOL
Hope I can pay off the bank this year. ;}
Hope I can pay off the bank this year. ;}
Yeah, pretty much every year, ever.
Mac, the reason I asked that question is the seed companies are developing new seeds so quickly that you almost have to be "on the ground" to know the real scoop. Publications, sometimes, have a hard time "keeping up."
I've got a Strong hunch that a lot of Iowa farmers will REALLY be pushing the envelope, this year, at $7.00 Corn. I was just wondering what X is hearing in the coffee shops. That's where the REAL "analysts" hang out. :)
X hangs out in coffee shops? He must be an elitist, I figured. So Kdolliso, why would we try to tie what little transportation fuels we can get from corn to something so variable like a harvest. You have to assume you won't have any droughts, infestations, fungal outbreaks or floods to have a steady supply. Since you can't agree with this, because you are probably paid not to, I wonder what you'll say.
As they say here in the south, "Don't count your eggs before they hatch."
When I was a Much younger man I owned a small restaurant in Missouri. I would open at 5:30. The pick-ups would have the place circled when I got there to open up (fair food - Good-looking, fast waitress.)
You could learn more about seeds, and chemicals in one hour a day in one week sitting next to the "main" table than you could learn in a year at Dupont/Monsanto Tech.
Take everything you see on tv with a grain of salt. It's ungodly wet up there, I'm sure. Some crops will be lost, and, some damaged. But, sometimes a year will start like this and you'll end up with a "bumper" crop. It all depends on the weather from here on out. You can plant pretty late if you catch a break with the weather. I think $7.00 Corn may lead several to chance it.
Anyway, we went into the year with 1.3 Billion Bushels in the bins, and Argentina has their whole crop, basically, in storage on the farms (big fight with the government over export tariffs.)
That said, we will probaby be tight this year. I guess we won't feed quite as many Vietnamese pigs as last year, and the price of a hamburger will go up a penny. I imagine a few of the less efficient ethanol plants will have some issues. All, in all, just another day at the ranch. :)
Haha, yeah I was just kidding about the whole coffee shop thing. I'm just saying putting an optimistic spin on everything won't make the world a better place. I just keep getting sick of our politicians and their complete incompetence on everything energy, republican and democrat alike. They make it sound like drilling ANWR will make us not have to worry about anything for the next 100 years, when in fact it would take 10 years to get running and lead to a few dollars less that oil prices will rise.
They don't have a clue what's going on Sword. Their job is to get elected; and, they leave that "energy" stuff to the oil company lobbyist on their campaign staff (unless, they're from the corn belt, then they consult the NCGA guy.)
They DO remember the "false alarms," though, and are NOT disposed to throwing the "out of oil" flag, Yet.
Anyways, that's all above my pay grade. I'm just a lowly ethanol lobbyist, you know.
Keep in mind, X said he had 14, or 15 acres under water; and, the Rest looked "pretty good." Either he's Iowa's smallest farmer, or he's in damned fine shape.
BTW, that Iowa dirt will hold moisture all summer. If he jumps in and plants that little patch one evening he'll make something out of it (and, with this price it's hard to believe that that he won't get Something in the ground.
Hello Kdolliso,
I am not a farmer, but I would guess the heavy rains and/or flood runoff would also push the NPK & trace Elements further down into the subsoil and/or remove the nutrients. Thus, not only replanting, but also needing fertilizer re-application. Let's hope not too many farmers miss the optimal seasonal time-slot and can afford the extra NPK.
Recall my numerous postings on the mitigative need for postPeak biosolar mission-critical investors and Federal Reserve Banks of I-NPK. Otherwise, we will see the gold bullion stacked outside Ft. Knox in machine gun bunker formation to protect the seeds and I-NPK hoarded inside.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
but I would guess the heavy rains and/or flood runoff would also push the NPK & trace Elements further down into the subsoil and/or remove the nutrients.
The soil can move from areobic to anerorbic + can suffer compaction.
lol, what false alarms are you speaking of, I am probably too young to remember them?
Iowa ranks #3 in the value of crops produced in the United States behind California and Texas.
Rule of thumb:
Floods don't kill you. Droughts do.
We are growing zero corn this year.
Delta Farm Press is really good.
The inputs are rising rapidly.
Pushing the envelope is the definition of a farmer. ;}
I wonder if the planting guides are updated to account for extended growing seasons.
Anecdotally at least the summers in NY seem to last thru September and into October now. In fact I think we've had our growing zone modified one level in the last couple years as an acknowledgment that climate change is indeed occurring.
Of course that may not be what limits the ability to plant corn and other crops later - maybe it's also due to decrease in the amount of daylight or other factors.
(Unfortunately I'm not a farmer - yet)
Crop comments from across the world.
http://www.agweb.com/Blogs/BlogPost.aspx?src=CropComments&PID=24924ec5-d...
Corn hits record, soy rallies as floods expand
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080612/bs_nm/markets_grains_dc;_ylt=AsSmvZm...
Pressure to rapidly expand corn ethanol production may drive the United States to use 40% of its corn for ethanol. Already 25% of the nation's corn is scheduled to be refined to ethanol this year. Biofuels efforts across the world are consuming large quantities of grain, sugar, vegetable oil, and other food crops. The situation is as threatening as numerous countries have banned the exportation of food for fear of famine.
Mandated conversion of food to biofuels is use of excessive force to start an industry that may not be able to function in a high food price environment.
Could a "stressed" corn harvest result in relaxing/eliminating the corn to ethanol "mandate" and instead clear the way for eliminating the tariffs on Brasil's sugar-based ethanol?
Pete
The United States is required by the 2005 EPACT law to produce: "6.1 billion gallons by 2009 and 7.5 billion gallons by 2012." The ethanol law was made more strict in as much as 36 billion gallons of annual production is required by 2022. The cap on grain/food ethanol was to be put at 15 billion gallons.
In 2007 the Dept. of Energy estimated that efforts to comply with the law might cause the United States to use 31% of its corn harvest by 2014.
There was an estimate that 25% of the corn harvest might be used this year to produce ethanol.
Another cited a study that 20% of the U.S. soybean harvest was being made into biodiesel.
Since the United States takes a dollar off the price of a gallon of biodiesel, the stuff was shipped to Europe were they have mandatory requirements to use biofuels. There have been allegations that the United States was dumping biodiesel in Europe below the price that it costs to make it. Taxpayers money is being used to give Europeans cheaper biofuel.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5j9PP-5HqEGZYPHnP_5HrwSHyZRbg
The mandates for increased ethanol production may be enforceable if voluntary compliance is not found. One group was trying to set up an ethanol trading board to trade ethanol credits similar to the way other parts of the world traded carbon credits. If one was selling fuel and did not have enough ethanol, one would have to buy credits from someone producing ethanol according to attempts to define the law in this manner. Some states already require 10 percent ethanol blending regardless of the price of ethanol; a more clearly defined mandate. If corn were to go up ten times the way oil has and ethanol becomes several times more expensive than gasoline, there is no free market safety valve to prevent an implosion in food stocks. If ethanol were yet allowed, but not mandated or subsidized, the ethanol could only be sold if consumers wanted it. If the Federal requirements are interpreted as guidelines, but not enforced, then the ethanol industry might go belly up if people will not want to pay their expenses.
Since biofuels production increases have coincided with food price spikes since 2005, there is evidence that current food inventroy shortages might be directly related to large scale conversions of grain, sugar, and vegetable oil to biofuels.
Don't forget the "splash and dash" or "U boat" trade, where the US pays a full subsidy to a foreign made fuel.
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/05/21/splash_dash/
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/4/1/13505/98081
I was surprised to see a minimum temperature forecast of 2°c for Saturday (here in France). A bit too close to 0°c for comfort.
Somebody break the climate or what?
There's been some interesting snow storms in the U.S. Rockies the past few days. Idaho and western Montana most recently.
I think that it could be that the THC has weakened considerably this past winter, judging by one indicator I watch. The climate people call that a "tipping point", but they don't officially expect it to occur until late in the century, if then. They also claim that by then, the rest of the climate will have warmed enough to counter any cooling effect of a THC shutdown. Let us know if you get frost...
E. Swanson
That water must be down here in Cedar Rapids now. Yesterday they were forecasting a crest for the Cedar river in town at 24.5 feet in Friday morning 4 feet over the record.
So what happens today? Another three inches of rain in the area, flash foods running down the streets toward the areas that weren't yet flooded because the storm sewers are full. My sister was at her place near the edge of the expected flood area retrieving some stuff when the rain started and had to split before the rain running down the streets drowned her car.
The cold front that was supposed to push the rain out of the area this morning must have gotten stuck because it raining again this evening. The river is now estimated at 29 feet (the river gage washed away so now they only have estimates) and is now forecast to crest at 32 feet.
And if things weren't bad enough I hear the head of FEMA is coming to town. We're f***ing doomed.
My condolences !
BTW, regarding FEMA, did you vote R or D in the last election ? It makes a difference to FEMA :-(
Alan