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86 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - June 2008
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86 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - June 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
It's not just biofuels that require large energy inputs. In fact one of the central tenants of Peak Oil is that the second half of the worlds oil will require exponentially increasing energy inputs to extract, and still yield declining flow rates. And I don't just mean natural gas, coal, blah. It'll require more raw materials (steel, etc.) in the form of extraction/transport infrastructure like deep sea rigs or roads/pipelines for ever more distant wells.
So it's not just the Biofuel part of the liquids production estimates that are meaningless. It's everything in general, the conventional crude production statistics too. None of these even try to estimate on even a global basis what the the energy overhead for energy production is (the energy the energy sector gobbles up), and thus what the net liquids is (production available for other sectors of the global economy). I hear ERoEI figures of 5:1 for Tar Sands and 10:1 for Conventional crude thrown around but I don't know how accurate these may be. I suppose they give you some idea. But it'd be nice if ERoEI was taken seriously by the EIA and IEA. Although I realise how even the estimates for each nations' consumption are difficult to come to, let alone the consumption figures for each nation's energy sector, let alone complicated things like taking emergy into account in the ERoEI (such as the steel used in a rig for example).
So I think the question "if you took corn ethanol out, what would liquids look like???" is the wrong one. The question should be: "If you deducted the energy+emergy overhead for energy production from gross liquids, what net would you be left with?"
I'd say if you did that we'd have been on a decline in "net liquids' energy" since perhaps 2004. Although I'm no expert. Perhaps someone else could hazard a guess what net liquids' energy graphed from 1850 to 2008 would look like.
Thanks Rembrandt,
The most telling figure is that the non-opec ( presumably more market driven) production has not changed from 2004, with 300% increase in price!
The good news is that overall demand has also flattened with ONLY a 300% increase in price, even with China's economy growing at 10-11%.If you look at copper, nickel, iron ore, coking coal price increases have been much higher. I think this means that oil use is more elastic than some of those other commodities, and that substitutions (thermal coal, LNG, even wind) are occurring.
I think the reason for the price increases of other resources is that oil is used in the extraction and transportation of those resources. The energy needed to produce those resources has gone up and therefore the price of the resource has gone up even more.
While worldwide biofuels production may have reached something close to 1.5 miilion barrels per day, it might not be sustainable not only in terms of energy inputs, but also in terms of fertilizer. The phosphate and potassium deposits are finite and non-renewable. Todays high crop yields are not possible without these nutrients.
Sorry, thought I should check that 1.5 million barrel a day biofuels figure. Have picked up too many bad rumors on the internet. Once I read that ethanol had lowered the price of gasoline 15 cents. Later I thought, "...the price of gasoline went up a dollar."
Worldwide ethanol production in 2007 was reported to be about 13 billion gallons.
That is 848,000 barrels of ethanol per day.
World biodisel production is elusive but is probably about a billion gallons per year with growth limited by lower oilseed stocks.
Less than a million barrels per day (approx.) liquids production may be attributed to biofuels.
A net energy curve is what we need for near peak and post peak history. This is what is supplying the world's energy and setting prices, and it morphs dramatically as you go through the peak time frame. Each EIA report I see forces me to try to see in my mind's eye what these curves really mean in supplying our energy.
Yes, many here have called for data on net production in order to realistically assess the true magnitude of the oil/liquids problem. While we are at it, EIA and IEA should show net exports as well in order to even more accurately portray the problem that the consumer countries face. Anyway, the price at the pump should give people a clue without all this data that the public could care less about anyway.
Net exports captures some of the energy used in production, in that energy consumed to produce the oil never makes it to the export market. However, it doesn't capture non-oil energy inputs (e.g. natural gas used synthesize oil from tar sands), and it doesn't capture oil that is indirectly imported and used to produce oil, as when Brazil leases a deep-water drilling rig (i.e. the country that built the rig most likely used imported oil to build it).
Net energy decline is a huge issue, and it is going to be very difficult to quantify. IMO, the somewhat bloated numbers coming from the IEA actually represent a net energy decline, even as production records were being set. Analysis based solely on gross production is faulty analysis. To paraphrase what Euan wrote yesterday, any analysis that doesn't talk about net energy can be dismissed out of hand.
"Net energy decline is a huge issue, and it is going to be very difficult to quantify."
Just for kicks & giggles wouldn't' t it be possible to plug in the rate of net energy decline from 100 - 1 to 10 - 1 (picking some arbitrary date of when the bulk of this decline began, say 1990?) into the standard production graph which would obviously turn the line south?
Sorry I am not much of a wiggly line guy or I would try it myself.