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86 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - June 2008
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86 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - June 2008
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Thanks Rembrandt,
The most telling figure is that the non-opec ( presumably more market driven) production has not changed from 2004, with 300% increase in price!
The good news is that overall demand has also flattened with ONLY a 300% increase in price, even with China's economy growing at 10-11%.If you look at copper, nickel, iron ore, coking coal price increases have been much higher. I think this means that oil use is more elastic than some of those other commodities, and that substitutions (thermal coal, LNG, even wind) are occurring.
I think the reason for the price increases of other resources is that oil is used in the extraction and transportation of those resources. The energy needed to produce those resources has gone up and therefore the price of the resource has gone up even more.
While worldwide biofuels production may have reached something close to 1.5 miilion barrels per day, it might not be sustainable not only in terms of energy inputs, but also in terms of fertilizer. The phosphate and potassium deposits are finite and non-renewable. Todays high crop yields are not possible without these nutrients.
Sorry, thought I should check that 1.5 million barrel a day biofuels figure. Have picked up too many bad rumors on the internet. Once I read that ethanol had lowered the price of gasoline 15 cents. Later I thought, "...the price of gasoline went up a dollar."
Worldwide ethanol production in 2007 was reported to be about 13 billion gallons.
That is 848,000 barrels of ethanol per day.
World biodisel production is elusive but is probably about a billion gallons per year with growth limited by lower oilseed stocks.
Less than a million barrels per day (approx.) liquids production may be attributed to biofuels.