224 comments on DrumBeat: June 17, 2008
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224 comments on DrumBeat: June 17, 2008
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What are all the excuses they've used so far? That's one. Another I can remember is the 2004 and maybe on into 2005 (?) was that it isn't oil production that's the problem, it's refinery capacity in the U.S.
And to put their planned (hoped for) increase in production in perspective, from 2005 to 2008, they probably will have increased their domestic consumption by about 500,000 bpd. I still wonder if they are curtailing domestic refinery runs (and then increasing imports of petroleum products, which aren't widely reported) in an attempt to boost reported crude oil exports. The net export numbers won't show up until some time next year.
I got to thinking about if there was any way to track oil consumption within the KSA and thought about car sales as an indicator. I found this:
The population is about 27 million in the KSA, so just about 2.0% of the population bought cars last year. In the U.S. in 2004 there were about 7.5 million cars sold out of a population of 285 million (link), thus about 2.6% of the population bought a car that year. Also, the record in the U.S. for year to year increase was 5.88% in 1972-1973 but if you look at the KSA stats above, it's pretty close to that. So the KSA would probably have similar ownership per capita as the U.S., given another decade or two without TSHTF. Reduced exports indeed!
*edit* I made a mistake in one of the numbers that I corrected.
Any idea what their average fuel economy is? Or what models sell best?
Nope, but seemingly you could estimate the consumption based on the range you see in other countries if you knew how many were on the road. My quick googling didn't come up with that one...
Lots of interesting results from this google, like this one. That China is an active player in the Saudi auto market was surprising.
Well, we won't have to listen to their excuses for much longer if this is true:
Scientists find bugs that eat waste and excrete petrol
Silicon Valley is experimenting with bacteria that have been genetically altered to provide 'renewable petroleum'
bugs that eat cellulose and make crude.
I very much hope they are storing it in a bio safety level 4 building.
I'm not gonna bother to read any more than what you posted - I can well believe that a former software executive thinks you can pour crude oil into a Lexus, but I cannot imagine why I would want to read any more of it.
The pitch and volume is getting hysterical - "there's no place like home, there's no place like home........".
There is just so much bloody nonsense out there - water carbs, bugs that shit gasoline, what have you. I've said before that we've all been wallowing in so much energy for so long that we cannot even see it. There is just a ridiculous amount of useful energy in a gallon of gasoline, and in spite of that it takes a lot of fuel to move a vehicle. And how many gallons have you used in your lifetime? Consequently, people have no intuition at all about how much energy it takes to move an automobile. The end result is that people are desperate to believe in anything that promises to keep them in unlimited energy, but the fact is that nothing can.
Boy will they be pissed when they figure it out - but in the mean time it's a golden opportunity to separate the scientifically illiterate from their money.
This has been all over the news lately. Let's see the EROEI, eh? If you have to spend a large amount of energy on making buffers, media, electron donors and keeping environmental conditions just right to culture those bacteria you ain't goin' nowhere. Here's an analog from another industry: for some years, bioremediation has been the future of toxic waste disposal and many people have gotten funding to develop strategies to do it and implement them. Thus far, it isn't working nearly as well as hoped because it is damn difficult to get a particular strain of bacteria to grow where you want them, they tend to grow where they want to grow or they just get eaten by the native bacteria because they don't have a niche in the ecosystem. That's not to say it can't be done, though. If this guy has something he'll be a bajillionaire faster than you can say "12 mpg SUV", but my money's on that he's a snake oil salesman (I'm speaking figuratively).