I'm not agreeing with him, I'm correcting him

Note how this got started

Global exports are unlikely to increase in the future. Do you agree or disagree?

Disagree.

And when some oil-exporting country actually does cut subsidies, let us know.

You said China could increase net exports.

Remember, China produces oil too! The greater the percentage of oil their domestic production satisfies, the more 'oil' that is added to the global economy. Only an ill-informed person would suggest that a drop in oil consumption in a country that produces oil would not increase global oil exports!

But now its "Country X".

Can't you just admit you were wrong?

this is barely related to your original point, your argument was that China (net importer) could increase world exports by decreasing consumption.

Your argument above is about an net exporting country cutting consumption, that's not happening, Most of the large exporters have subsidies still (and are very unlikely to stop them, it would be silly to).

Even if what you said were true, it's not even applicable to this argument...nice try though...

Seems reasonable to me:)

We reversed Iraq's export trend.

Next up, we'll try to reverse Iran's export trend also.

In theory, a nation can strangle it's own economy in order keep exports high. but I know of no case where a nation sacrificed itself voluntarily.

Nigeria for instance has kept internal consumption low, at the behest of the oil industry and actions taken by mercenary forces. This has not been done in Nigeria's interest.

Pigs can theoretically evolve into flying mammals. But the probability that it will occur in my lifetime is so remote, I'd never consider putting money on it.

The net trend will not break it's 2005 peak, no way in hell, but why not in Cornicopian fantasy land. Look there is not going to be a reverse in consumption in Saudi and friends because the high price of oil drives a lot of economic growth in Saudi and elsewhere, If you knew anything about the ELM, it accelerates due to this.

Well, demand destruction is happening now. But so far we have no major relaxation of tension between supply and demand. The IEA is predicting an 800,000 bpd increase over 2007. That said, we do have downward revision month on month, so it seems we are well into demand destruction land.

If oil countries were to cut domestic demand in the face of demand destruction abroad, the net result may well be a glut in oil and falling prices. If oil countries were to bias their position so that they were able to, as whole, keep oil off the markets and result in net export decline, the result might still be levitated prices in the face of demand destruction. At this point, you have oil price racing against reduced demand + innovation. The question is, how fast can demand destruction + innovation run? And we really just don't know the answer.

Now we may see artificial cases of reverse ELM in the event that countries are leaned on diplomatically to control their internal consumption. That said, as in Indonesia, this sort of thing would increase internal tensions and unrest over fuel costs would be likely to emerge.

I don't think a reverse ELM is likely to take hold until a net loss in oil revenue began to emerge. At that point a country, as in the case of Indonesia, would have to choose between economic growth and assuaging its populace with low fuel prices. But with prices so high at the moment and a long way to go before places like Saudi Arabia cut significantly into exports, I think ELM will rule so long as demand outpaces supply or we have shortages.

One other point, you may want to look at Iran as a case study for reverse ELM. Iran recently rationed fuel in order to control growing domestic demand. My thought is they did this to protect export revenue.

Thoughts?