The purpose of The Oil Drum is to study the peaking of oil production which is what is limiting supply.

I recommend reading "Hubbert's Peak" by Kenneth S. Deffeyes. He shows the US conventional oil supply as hitting a maximum of 220 bbl and has a complete explanation of the math behind that prediction. As we are far past the half way point in oil production in the US, your estimate of 118 left to produce is far too high.

Absolutely. In all honesty the oil math on the Republican side is very fuzzy and overly optimistic. It's full of the same nonsense that continues to keep people in the dark on the issue of peak oil. Not that democrats are outspoken about the issue. But at least democrats are willing to take an honest shot at alternatives.

In any case, I've got to agree with RR above. The US energy policy is dysfunctional -- prey to party politicking and special interests. This most recent round, I'm certain, is something you can thank the oil industry for.